{"id":12371,"date":"2023-11-10T22:05:59","date_gmt":"2023-11-10T22:05:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/business\/does-israel-have-a-road-map-for-gazas-future\/"},"modified":"2023-11-10T22:05:59","modified_gmt":"2023-11-10T22:05:59","slug":"does-israel-have-a-road-map-for-gazas-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=12371","title":{"rendered":"Does Israel have a road map for Gaza\u2019s future?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

When Benjamin Netanyahu sent troops into Gaza last month after Hamas launched a devastating assault on Israel, he pledged that the Jewish state would \u201celiminate\u201d the Palestinian militant group once and for all.<\/p>\n

In the weeks since, Israeli ground forces have encircled Hamas\u2019s political and military stronghold in Gaza City. But even as Israeli troops close in on their first military objective of taking control of northern Gaza, Israel\u2019s longer-term strategy for the enclave remains shrouded in mystery: to most Israelis, to Palestinians and even to its closest allies in the US.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think where we are is: a lot of questions and not a lot of answers,\u201d John Kirby, the US National Security Council spokesman, said this week in an interview with CNN. \u201cWe know what we don\u2019t want to see in Gaza post-conflict\u2009.\u2009.\u2009.\u2009But what we are going to see, what we want to see, I think we\u2019re still flushing that out.\u201d<\/p>\n

The question is becoming increasingly urgent. Israel\u2019s bombardment and invasion of Gaza has killed more than 11,000 people, according to Palestinian officials, and created a humanitarian catastrophe in the enclave. Even the US, which has staunchly backed Israel over the past month, is raising increasing alarm about the soaring death toll and the repercussions of a lengthy war.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe faster you can get to a point where you stop the hostilities, you have less strife for the civilian population that turns into someone who now wants to be the next member of Hamas,\u201d General Charles Brown, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, told reporters this week.<\/p>\n

But Israel, its western allies and the Palestinians are in uncharted territory. Reacting to the deadliest attack inside the state since its foundation in 1948, which killed approximately 1,200 people according to Israeli officials, Israel has launched the most devastating and destructive assault on Gaza since it withdrew from the strip in 2005. <\/p>\n

As Israeli troops move ever deeper into the besieged strip, a traumatised nation bent on revenge is being led by the most far-right government in its history, whose prime aim is the eradication of an Islamist group deeply embedded in Palestinian society.<\/p>\n

The unparalleled ferocity of Israel\u2019s response has exacerbated the lack of clarity about Gaza\u2019s postwar future as no one knows when or how the war will end. It is also not clear what it means in practice to destroy an organisation that has a political as well as a military arm, and which has, for the past 16 years been integral to the bureaucracy and provision of public services in Gaza.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re not going to be able to change the reality for the people who live in the south of Israel unless we eliminate Hamas,\u201d Ron Dermer, Israel\u2019s minister of strategic affairs, and a member of the country\u2019s five-man war cabinet, said last week. \u201cNow what does elimination mean? Does that mean going to the last bullet or not? That\u2019s a separate question, we\u2019ll have to decide.\u201d<\/p>\n

The picture is further clouded by the fact that the US, Israeli and Palestinian leaderships could all change during what is likely to be a protracted campaign \u2014 particularly if, as many fear, the war morphs into an open-ended guerrilla conflict inside Gaza. <\/p>\n

Mahmoud Abbas, the head of the Palestinian Authority, is 87 and surrounded by courtiers jostling for position; Netanyahu is beset by scandals and questions about his role in the failures that led to Hamas\u2019s attack on October 7; and polls this week suggested that US president Joe Biden could be replaced by Donald Trump in next year\u2019s election.<\/p>\n

\u2018No status quo\u2019<\/h2>\n

Nobody knows what will be left of Gaza \u2014 home to 2.3mn people and already devastated by a month-long bombardment and siege \u2014 when the fighting finally ends. Israeli officials have suggested it will be sealed off from Israel and potentially squeezed ever tighter by new buffer zones and security barriers inside the strip.<\/p>\n

\u201cAt the moment, thinking about \u2018the day after\u2019 feels like an intentional, or unintentional, distraction from what will fundamentally shape the day after,\u201d says Emile Hokayem, director of regional security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. \u201cIt\u2019s what Israel does now that will determine what you can do the day after.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/source><\/source>\"Two<\/picture>
Israel\u2019s month-long bombardment has left northern Gaza in ruins but there is little indication of a long-term plan for after the fighting ends<\/span> \u00a9 Abed Rahim Khatib\/dpa<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

While Israeli officials remain tight-lipped about their long-term plans, some western officials question whether they even exist. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe Israelis, they haven\u2019t really thought about it\u2009.\u2009.\u2009.\u2009that makes it very difficult for anyone else to plan,\u201d says a western official. \u201cIt\u2019s very messy.\u201d<\/p>\n

As international pressure mounts for a ceasefire, Netanyahu this week gave the clearest indication yet of his government\u2019s thinking on the immediate postwar period, saying that Israel would \u201cfor an indefinite period\u2009.\u2009.\u2009.\u2009have the overall security responsibility\u201d for the enclave.<\/p>\n

Israeli officials concede this could include forces being stationed in Gaza after the war has ended. \u201cWe will have to have our forces in different areas to enable operational flexibility,\u201d says one senior official. \u201cWe all woke up on October 7 to a new reality. This means for all of us not to think from the perspective of the past.\u201d<\/p>\n

Some in Israel\u2019s security apparatus think a situation akin to that in parts of the occupied West Bank, such as the so-called Area B, where Israeli forces exercise security control alongside a Palestinian civilian authority, is the most likely outcome. \u201cThere are two operational things that you need to do to prevent a build-up of terror in Gaza,\u201d says Amir Avivi, former deputy commander of the Gaza Division of Israel\u2019s military. \u201cYou need to control the Egyptian border\u2009.\u2009.\u2009.\u2009And you need something like Area B in the West Bank, where you can go in and out and apprehend terror cells like we do there.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/source><\/source>\"Ron<\/picture>
Ron Dermer, Israel\u2019s minister of strategic affairs and a member of the five-person war cabinet, says Hamas must be eliminated to protect people in the south of the country<\/span> \u00a9 Bridget Bennett\/Bloomberg<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

But others on Israel\u2019s right have demanded that the Jewish state exercise more open-ended control of Gaza \u2014 and even reintroduce Israeli settlements, considered illegal by most of the international community, into the strip. Members of Netanyahu\u2019s Likud party have submitted a bill that would overturn legislation passed after Israel\u2019s 2005 withdrawal that prevents Israelis from entering Gaza. \u201cThere is no status quo, and nothing is sacred,\u201d education minister Yoav Kisch said earlier this week.<\/p>\n

Such talk, in combination with Israel\u2019s displacement of hundreds of thousands of Gazans from the north of the territory, has fuelled fears among Palestinians that Israel could end up taking control of the enclave. <\/p>\n

\u201cWhich Israeli politician would campaign on withdrawing from northern Gaza?\u201d asks one Palestinian analyst. \u201cIt will be another West Bank, but even worse, because there will be no Palestinians.\u201d<\/p>\n

Israel\u2019s leadership insists this is not the case. \u201cI don\u2019t think we want to control 2mn Palestinians,\u201d says the senior official. \u201c[On] future mechanisms for Gaza, whatever those might be, there are two conditions. The first is that it cannot be Hamas under any circumstances. And secondly, we must maintain operational superiority.\u201d<\/p>\n

The world watches<\/h2>\n

In a bid to ease concerns among the Palestinians and Washington\u2019s Arab allies, US secretary of state Antony Blinken this week set out some of the Biden administration\u2019s parameters for the postwar order in Gaza. <\/p>\n

There could be no reoccupation, he said. Nor could there be any forcible displacement of Palestinians from the strip, or a reduction of Gaza\u2019s territory, or any attempt to blockade it. Instead, he argued, Gaza and the West Bank should be reunified under the Palestinian Authority, the body created during the 1990s as a step towards an independent Palestinian state which exercises limited autonomy in parts of the West Bank \u2014 and which also administered Gaza until it was ousted by Hamas in 2007.<\/p>\n

<\/source><\/source>\"Antony<\/picture>
Antony Blinken met Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv last month. The US secretary of state has suggested that the UN or a coalition of Arab states could run Gaza for an interim period after the war<\/span> \u00a9 Jacquelyn Martin\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

But how to achieve this, or even whether it would be a viable solution, is mired in doubt. <\/p>\n

Blinken suggested last week that the UN or a coalition of Arab states could run Gaza for an interim period after the war before handing over to an \u201ceffective and revitalised\u201d PA. But diplomats and regional officials are deeply sceptical.<\/p>\n

Although the UN played a key role in running public services, such as schools, in Gaza before the war, few think it would be able to take on the whole civilian administration. <\/p>\n

And as the war has progressed, Israeli officials have been increasingly hostile towards the UN, with several accusing it of siding with the Palestinians. <\/p>\n

\u201cAn international force isn\u2019t going to do it,\u201d says Yossi Kuperwasser, a former head of the research division of the IDF, arguing that the failure of the UN mission in Lebanon to prevent clashes along the Lebanese-Israel border between militant group Hizbollah and Israeli forces showed it would not work in Gaza. \u201cWhere is Unifil when [Hizbollah] launches attacks on us?\u201d<\/p>\n

Nor do Arab states have any appetite to take on what they see as the poisoned chalice of assuming any role in Gaza. \u201cIf you do it you are going to be crucified in the Arab world,\u201d says one Arab diplomat. \u201cNo Arab country will come in after the destruction.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/source><\/source>\"Mahmou<\/picture>
Arab officials say Mahmoud Abbas\u2019s Palestinian Authority lacks legitimacy after years of being systematically weakened by Israel<\/span> \u00a9 Kyodo\/Reuters<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The bigger question, however, is whether any attempt to reinstall the PA in Gaza would create more problems than it would solve, especially if the body returned as a result of Israeli conquest of the territory.<\/p>\n

\u201cNo Palestinian agency, including the PA, can take over Gaza in the context of an alliance between us and Israel against Hamas,\u201d says one senior Palestinian official. \u201cThat\u2019s an impossibility. And no Palestinian agency can be part of an international alliance against Hamas\u2009.\u2009.\u2009.\u2009Any external agency [in Gaza] will empower Hamas.\u201d<\/p>\n

He and Arab officials insist the only viable option to neutering Hamas\u2019s militant ideology is the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel. <\/p>\n

They blame Israel for fuelling the conflict by spending years systematically weakening the PA to the point where it can barely administer its ever-eroding chunk of the West Bank. And this, combined with years without elections or any meaningful progress towards a Palestinian state, have robbed the body of its legitimacy. For many Palestinians, the PA is now little more than a subcontractor of the Israeli occupation.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt sets up this system where you have this false impression that the PA is in control, but in reality, it\u2019s going to be Israel that\u2019s in control,\u201d says Diana Buttu, a Palestinian lawyer and analyst who previously worked with the PA. \u201cThe Americans are looking through these old, tired formulas from the 1990s. And that shows you that they don\u2019t have any vision.\u201d<\/p>\n

But as the war grinds into its sixth week, and the human toll hits catastrophic levels, it is those old formulas to which diplomats and officials in Washington and the Middle East are returning, even if few hold much hope that they will succeed.<\/p>\n

<\/source><\/source>\"IDF<\/picture>
Israeli troops on patrol this week. There are concerns the war will morph into an open-ended guerrilla conflict inside Gaza<\/span> \u00a9 Israel Defence Forces\/Reuters<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s hard to be optimistic,\u201d says the western official. \u201cThe only positive thing is everybody recognises there\u2019s got to be some sort of push towards a Palestinian state, otherwise none of this is going to get any better.\u201d<\/p>\n

Yet that prospect also appears to be a remote aspiration. <\/p>\n

The official says that to reach a settlement to the intractable Israeli-Palestinian conflict requires three key ingredients: an engaged US administration and Israeli and Palestinian leaders that are serious about peace.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn the last 30 years we\u2019ve had two, or maybe two and a half of those,\u201d the official says. \u201cBefore this crisis we had zero which is one of the reasons we are in the place we are in.\u201d<\/p>\n

Cartography by <\/em>Steven Bernard<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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