{"id":14616,"date":"2025-06-01T07:14:29","date_gmt":"2025-06-01T07:14:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=14616"},"modified":"2025-06-01T07:14:32","modified_gmt":"2025-06-01T07:14:32","slug":"military-briefing-how-iran-is-preparing-for-israeli-or-us-strikes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=14616","title":{"rendered":"Military briefing: How Iran is preparing for Israeli or US strikes"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Iran has been seeking to bolster its air defences as the military prepares for the possibility of an Israeli or US strike against Tehran\u2019s nuclear infrastructure if negotiations over its enrichment programme break down.<\/p>\n

Many of Iran\u2019s most-advanced surface-to-air missiles and radars \u2014 including its long-range Russian-made S-300 systems \u2014 were destroyed or damaged by Israeli air strikes in October and April 2024.<\/p>\n

This, coupled with successful Israeli strikes on Iranian proxies such as Lebanese militants Hizbollah and Yemen\u2019s Houthi rebels, has led to the perception that Iran is at its most vulnerable to air attack in decades.<\/p>\n

However, experts say many elements of Iran\u2019s air defences remain intact or appear to have been repaired in recent months.<\/p>\n

Western intelligence assessments and satellite imagery reviewed by defence analysts suggest that Iran has since repositioned several surface-to-air missile launchers, including S-300 systems, near key nuclear sites such as Natanz and Fordow.<\/p>\n

Some kit has also been shown in public in recent months, with a parade of weaponry \u2014 including an S-300 launcher and a radar truck \u2014 displayed in Tehran at \u201cArmy Day\u201d celebrations last month.<\/p>\n

An S-300 unit was also shown launching a surface-to-air missile during military exercises in February using a new, Iranian-designed radar \u2014 possibly because its original radar was inoperable, according to Nicole Grajewski of the Carnegie Endowment in Washington.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran definitely wants to negate the narrative that its advanced air defences are destroyed,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

<\/source><\/source><\/picture><\/figure>\n

Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran\u2019s armed forces, this month touted Iran\u2019s preparedness for an attack.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are witnessing a remarkable improvement in the capability and readiness of the country\u2019s air defence,\u201d he said, trumpeting a \u201cseveral-fold increase in investments\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe enemies of the Iranian nation must understand that any violation of our country\u2019s airspace will inflict significant damage upon them,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Though negotiations with Washington over the future of Iran\u2019s nuclear programme are ongoing, US President Donald Trump \u2014 who abandoned an earlier nuclear deal with Iran during his first term \u2014 has threatened to attack the Islamic republic if talks break down.<\/p>\n

Washington has demanded that Iran stop enriching uranium, something it says is necessary to prevent the country acquiring nuclear weapons, while Tehran insists it must be able to continue enriching for civilian use.<\/p>\n

The US in April ordered six B-2 bombers \u2014 the largest deployment of the aircraft ever \u2014 to Diego Garcia, the Indian Ocean base which is expected to be the likely launch point for any strikes against Iran.<\/p>\n

<\/source>\"An<\/picture>
An S-300 missile system on display during Iran\u2019s Army Day parade<\/span> \u00a9 AFP\/Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Israel, which has already shown it can hit Iranian air defences, has been pushing the US to support strikes\u00a0against Iran. Experts have said there is a risk that Israel would attack without Washington\u2019s consent if it felt Trump agreed to a weak deal.<\/p>\n

During its strikes last year, Israel targeted radar and missile sites with ballistic missiles launched from well outside the S-300\u2019s maximum range of 200km. Boosters for these missiles, made by Israel\u2019s Rafael Corporation, were found in the Iraqi desert hundreds of kilometres away.<\/p>\n

The effectiveness of these attacks is still hotly debated.<\/p>\n

Open source satellite images show a few direct hits, such as on an S-300 radar truck at an air base near Isfahan after the April 2024 strike. But imagery after the October strikes showed many S-300 sites empty, making it unclear whether the missiles had been destroyed or simply moved.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is not much hard evidence,\u201d said Sam Lair, a research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. <\/p>\n

However, Iran was clearly bruised. Western intelligence assesses that Tehran believes its air defences \u201cunderperformed\u201d last year and has taken steps such as repositioning and diversifying launchers and radars, according to two people familiar with these reports.<\/p>\n

Lair and two co-authors this month published an analysis of a snippet from an Iranian propaganda video that inadvertently revealed the inside of an air defence command centre. A detailed analysis by Lair and a colleague suggested the defences were \u201cfragmented in nature\u201d.<\/p>\n

But an attack on Iran\u2019s nuclear sites, located in hardened underground bunkers \u2014 the facility at Natanz is built into a mountain \u2014 would be far more complicated than anything Israel attempted last year.<\/p>\n

Were the US to be involved, the B-2 bombers based in Diego Garcia would likely drop heavy 30,000lb GBU-57 bunker buster bombs directly on the target, according to research published in March by the Royal United Services Academy in London.<\/p>\n

If it acted alone, Israel \u2014 which lacks heavy bombers or a way to deliver such large ordnance \u2014 would have more limited options.<\/p>\n

They would likely use F-35 stealth fighters, armed with 2,000lb BLU-109 precision bombs, or F-15 fighter bombers carrying 4,000lb GBU-28 bombs, either of which would require multiple hits on the same crater to punch through hardened shelters, RUSI said.<\/p>\n

This might require many sorties, possibly using mid-air refuelling tankers that themselves might be vulnerable to long-range surface-to-air missiles or drones. Since last summer, Israel has struck targets in Yemen at least nine times at a distance similar to a strike on Iran.<\/p>\n

<\/source><\/source>\"Iran\u2019s<\/picture>
Iran\u2019s 359 anti-aircraft drone<\/span> \u00a9 X\/Yuri Lyamin<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

They would also be well within range of the still-operational array of short and medium surface-to-air missiles, and loitering anti-aircraft drones, with which Iran has layered its air defences. It would be hard to know how many of these had been destroyed before a concerted bombing campaign started.<\/p>\n

As well as short-range systems such as the Russian Tor-M1, Iran\u2019s arsenal also includes locally developed surface-to-air missiles like the long-range Bavar-373 and the medium-range Khordad-15. These homegrown weapon programmes grew out of frustration with Russia\u2019s slow deliveries and refusal to sell more advanced systems like the S-400, according to Fabian Hinz, a research fellow at the UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. <\/p>\n

\u201cFrom the Iranian side this effort attempts to replicate the success story of Iran\u2019s ballistic missile development programme,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Jon Alterman, chair of global security and geostrategy at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said navigating such defences would not be straightforward for Israel. \u201cBut is that beyond Israeli capabilities? No, of course not. The Israelis have been training for precisely this scenario for decades.\u201d<\/p>\n

So has Iran. Suppressing Iran\u2019s air defences before bombing the nuclear sites would be an hours- or even days-long battle, pitting aircrews against surface weapons operators, using fighters and cruise missiles supported by electronic jamming aircraft and anti-radiation missiles to destroy radar.<\/p>\n

\u201cIsrael has established near air dominance over Iran,\u201d said Robert Tollast, a researcher at UK think-tank RUSI. \u201cBut a strike like this would require waves and waves of aircraft over several hours.\u00a0Crew fatigue enters the picture. The longer they are over Iran, the more likely that something goes wrong.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/source><\/source>\"A<\/picture>
A nuclear facility at Isfahan, Iran<\/span> \u00a9 WANA\/Reuters<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Iranian radar, vulnerable to radiation-seeking missiles and having to switch off to survive, could be blinded by Israeli jamming, he said. However, even if most of Iran\u2019s high-end air defences are subdued or destroyed, there are systems that could get lucky.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou have a very intense air battle, with a significant chance that an Israeli pilot would be paraded on Iranian TV.\u201d<\/p>\n

Even Iran\u2019s less advanced missiles could be successful. For example, Syria in 2018 downed an Israeli F-16 with a S-200 surface-to-air missile, a Russian system that came into service in the late 1960s. The plane crashed in northern Israel and both pilots survived.<\/p>\n

Yuri Lyamin, an air defence specialist and one of the world\u2019s top experts on Russian air defence systems at Moscow\u2019s Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, said the success of an attack would not be preordained.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile everyone pays attention to the S-300, Iran attaches great importance to the creation of the most mobile, modern air defence systems which can quickly change positions, hide in shelters, making them less vulnerable to stand off strikes with long-range missiles,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

The outcome \u201cwould depend on how well attackers work together, versus how well the defending force can work together. The best team will win\u201d.<\/p>\n

Additional reporting by Bita Ghaffari in Tehran<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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