{"id":1660,"date":"2023-10-14T04:34:43","date_gmt":"2023-10-14T04:34:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/markets\/yardeni-raises-odds-of-a-recession-after-hamas-attack-on-israel\/"},"modified":"2023-10-14T04:34:44","modified_gmt":"2023-10-14T04:34:44","slug":"yardeni-raises-odds-of-a-recession-after-hamas-attack-on-israel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=1660","title":{"rendered":"Yardeni raises odds of a recession after Hamas attack on Israel"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Yardeni Research now sees an increased risk of a recession before the end of next year, after the start of the Israel-Hamas war on Saturday.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe prospects of a prolonged war in the Middle East heighten the chance of a recession in the U.S.,\u201d Yardeni Research analysts said in a note Tuesday. \u201cThat\u2019s not our base-case outlook, but we are raising the odds we see of a recession before year-end 2024 to 30% from 25%.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

A quick ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, as seen in the past, is unlikely as it\u2019s a war between Israel and Iran, in their view.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cFor Israel, it is existential. This time, Israel\u2019s goal is to wipe out Hamas, which is Iran\u2019s surrogate in Gaza,\u201d the analysts wrote. \u201cThe war is also existential for Iran\u2019s mullahs, who need it to distract the population from discontent over their authoritarian regime by moving forward on their machinations to wipe out Israel.\u201d<\/p>\n

Yardeni warned that the war could widen to include Hezbollah, \u201cIran\u2019s proxy in Lebanon,\u201d and raised the possibility of the U.S. tightening sanctions on Iran\u2019s oil exports.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe tightening of sanctions on Iran oil could cause oil prices to spike above $100 a barrel, which could trigger a worldwide recession,\u201d the analysts said. \u201cMore likely is that Saudi Arabia would increase its production and exports to keep the price of oil below $100 a barrel.\u201d<\/p>\n

West Texas Intermediate crude prices
\n CL00,
\n +5.80%<\/bg-quote>
\n were trading down slightly on Tuesday morning at around $86 a barrel, according to FactSet data, at last check.<\/p>\n

Yardeni\u2019s \u201cworry list\u201d has grown recently, according to the note. Beyond \u201cthe escalation of Middle East hostilities,\u201d the analysts expressed concern over a potential debt crisis while saying they\u2019re watching the banking industry for any signs that \u201ca credit crunch\u201d may be emerging.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Last month Yardeni raised the odds of a recession to 25% as a result of its concern about the potential for a debt crisis tied to U.S. federal government deficits that are too wide. Financial markets are worried about the issue, the analysts said.<\/p>\n

Read:<\/strong> Why the \u2018abnormally large\u2019 U.S. deficit is a worry \u2018big time\u2019 for stocks and bonds, says Yardeni<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Bond Vigilantes seem to have saddled up and formed a posse of rough riders aiming to bring law and order back to fiscal policy,\u201d they said, pointing to the recent surge in long-term Treasury yields.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
\n BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
\n was trading down 12 basis points on Tuesday morning at around 4.69%, according to FactSet data, at last check.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cWe still expect that the 10-year Treasury bond yield will settle around the Old Normal range of 4.50%-5.00%,\u201d the Yardeni analysts said.\u00a0 \u201cThat will happen only if inflation continues to moderate, as we\u2019ve been predicting.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yardeni Research now sees an increased risk of a recession before the end of next year, after the start of the Israel-Hamas…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1661,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-1660","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets"},"yoast_head":"\nYardeni raises odds of a recession after Hamas attack on Israel | inFundPros<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Yardeni Research now sees an increased risk of a recession before the end of next year, after the start of the Israel-Hamas war on Saturday. \u201cThe\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=1660\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" 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