{"id":3523,"date":"2023-10-20T05:02:23","date_gmt":"2023-10-20T05:02:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/business\/argentine-politics-faces-shake-up-in-pivotal-election\/"},"modified":"2023-10-20T05:02:23","modified_gmt":"2023-10-20T05:02:23","slug":"argentine-politics-faces-shake-up-in-pivotal-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=3523","title":{"rendered":"Argentine politics faces shake-up in pivotal election"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Argentines will vote in general elections on Sunday that stand to reshape its political map, with both the mainstream parties weakened by the legacy of multiple economic crises and challenged by libertarian outsider Javier Milei.<\/p>\n

With annual inflation running at 138 per cent and two-fifths of Argentines living in poverty, the deeply unpopular current president Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez, of the centre-left populist Peronist movement, has opted not to run in the presidential election \u2014 which will be accompanied by a congressional vote \u2014 after almost four years in power.<\/p>\n

Former president and current vice-president Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner, leader of Peronism\u2019s more radical left wing, is also absent from the ballot and has been keeping a low profile in the campaign after a corruption conviction in December last year.<\/p>\n

Instead, the Peronist candidate is economy minister Sergio Massa, a seasoned political operator from the pragmatic wing of his coalition. Also running is former security minister Patricia Bullrich, who is on the right of Argentina\u2019s pro-business opposition coalition Juntos por el Cambio (JxC).<\/p>\n

While JxC were the frontrunners until the August primary, they have been upset by\u00a0Milei, a radical first-term congressman who wants to slash spending by 15 per cent of gross domestic product and dollarise Argentina\u2019s economy. <\/p>\n

<\/source><\/source>\"Milei<\/picture>
Milei waves to supporters in Buenos Aires. The libertarian outsider is expected to come first in Sunday\u2019s vote<\/span> \u00a9 Tomas Cuesta\/Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Milei argues that both Peronism, which has dominated Argentine politics since the mid-20th century, and the 2015-19 JxC government of Mauricio Macri are to blame for Argentina\u2019s chronic economic crises. He is now the narrow favourite to win.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe others say they will change things but the money [in my pocket] keeps diminishing,\u201d said Evelyn, a 23-year-old assistant in a butcher\u2019s shop in the Buenos Aires slum neighbourhood of Villa 31. \u201cWe have to try something new.\u201d<\/p>\n

While Argentina\u2019s pre-election polls are unreliable, most pollsters expect Milei to come first on October 22 and enter a second-round run-off against either Massa or Bullrich on November 18.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

To win the presidency outright this Sunday, a candidate would need 45 per cent of the vote, or 40 per cent with a 10-point lead over their nearest rival. <\/p>\n

Milei\u2019s sudden rise to the forefront of Argentine politics has coincided with a changing of the guard among the two main parties. This is the first election in more than two decades where neither Macri nor a Kirchner will appear on the ballot.<\/p>\n

<\/source><\/source>\"Sergio<\/picture>
Sergio Massa, Argentina\u2019s economy minister and the Peronist candidate for president, delivers a speech on Tuesday<\/span> \u00a9 Juan Mabromata\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

That scenario may lead to a lasting reshuffle in the country\u2019s main political forces, including within Peronism, which has shifted to the left over the past two decades under Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner\u2019s influence, said Guido Moscoso, director of public opinion at research company Opinaia.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cPeronism is at its weakest moment in 40 years,\u201d he said. \u201cBut if Massa does well, he may be able to renew or reconfigure it towards his more [business-friendly] image. It depends on his level of success.\u201d<\/p>\n

Nely, a 25-year-old worker in a small grocery store in Villa 31, said she had previously voted for the Peronists and their big-state model, but that she would now back Milei. <\/p>\n

\u201cBefore, you thought that [Peronism under Kirchner] could improve your life, give you opportunities, let you travel. But it\u2019s clearly not working. I think Kirchnerism is the past.\u201d<\/p>\n

Some attendees of a Peronist rally in a Buenos Aires suburb this week appeared less than enthusiastic about Massa, who is known as a political flip-flopper. But they argued that Bullrich and Milei posed a grave risk to Argentina\u2019s working class.<\/p>\n

<\/source><\/source>\"Patricia<\/picture>
Patricia Bullrich, former security minister, is the candidate of the centre-right, pro-business Juntos por el Cambio<\/span> \u00a9 Natacha Pisarenko\/AP<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cAt first, I didn\u2019t like [Massa], but\u2009.\u2009.\u2009.\u2009at least he\u2019s a Peronist,\u201d said Norma Calveyra, a 58-year-old seamstress. <\/p>\n

\u201cWe don\u2019t want everything to blow up, to lose all our rights,\u201d she added. \u201cWith the other two, we\u2019re in the fire.\u201d<\/p>\n

JxC, a centre-right coalition unified mostly by its opposition to Peronism, faces an existential crisis if Milei wins. <\/p>\n

\u201cThere would be incentives for a split between those who would not support Milei legislatively, and those who would, with Macri at the head,\u201d Moscoso said. The former president has said he would support the libertarian in making \u201creasonable\u201d reforms.<\/p>\n

Dealmaking between parties in Congress will be crucial for any of the three candidates to govern since the results of the August primary suggest it is unlikely any of them will hold a majority in either the lower or upper house after Sunday\u2019s vote.<\/p>\n

Analysts say Argentina\u2019s precarious financial situation, its most fragile in two decades, will probably force the next president into more orthodox economic policy.<\/p>\n

Massa, for his part, promises if elected to stabilise the economy \u2014 something he has not achieved in 14 months in government \u2014 without neglecting social justice.<\/p>\n

The central bank\u2019s net foreign currency reserves are about $7.6bn in the red, and the government is struggling to service snowballing debts to local bondholders. The country is far from meeting the conditions of its $44bn IMF programme and has no access to international capital markets.<\/p>\n

Massa has presided over continued central bank money-printing to fund the deficit, something that has pushed up inflation further and devalued the peso. The next government will face pressure to unpick a patchwork of measures introduced by the Peronists to tamp down inflation, including price and foreign exchange controls.<\/p>\n

Economists say that process will unleash yet more inflation. If the government loses control of price pressures, the risk of hyperinflation looms. <\/p>\n

\u201cAll of the buffers for the economy have been eroded\u2009.\u2009.\u2009.\u2009There will definitely be a shock in the short term,\u201d said Nicol\u00e1s Dujovne, former economy minister in the 2015 to 2019 JxC government.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThe only thing on the table is for Argentina to get to the end of 2024 having gone through a difficult year, with hope that we\u2019re going in the right direction,\u201d he added. \u201cOr we could be just as hopeless as we are right now.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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