{"id":3606,"date":"2023-10-20T09:26:56","date_gmt":"2023-10-20T09:26:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/news\/datadog-stock-the-ultimate-garp-play-nasdaqddog\/"},"modified":"2023-10-20T09:26:57","modified_gmt":"2023-10-20T09:26:57","slug":"datadog-stock-the-ultimate-garp-play-nasdaqddog","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=3606","title":{"rendered":"Datadog Stock: The Ultimate GARP Play (NASDAQ:DDOG)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<p><figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture><\/picture><figcaption><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p>If you would, close your eyes for a moment and think about what the ideal investment looks like.<\/p>\n<p>This, of course, will depend on your investing style and market philosophy, but if you&#8217;re like us, you&#8217;re probably thinking about<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> a few key characteristics:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">\n<li>Growing<\/li>\n<li>Profitable<\/li>\n<li>Reasonable Price<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">After all, when it comes to investing in anything, there are really only two things to be concerned with: the character of the &#8216;box&#8217; you&#8217;re investing into, and the price of that &#8216;box&#8217;.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Given that we&#8217;re here on Seeking Alpha, the &#8216;boxes&#8217; in question are all stocks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">When it comes to Datadog (<span class=\"ticker-hover-wrapper\">NASDAQ:DDOG<\/span>), it&#8217;s hard to argue that the company is anything but a near perfect setup, especially for folks who are interested in GARP (&#8220;Growth-At-A-Reasonable-Price&#8221;) opportunities.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">The &#8216;character&#8217; of the box is excellent, as the company continues to churn<span class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\"> out revenue growth and stable profits quarter after quarter on the back of its highly rated, sticky product suite.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">However, not only is the quality of the &#8216;box&#8217; great, but the price you&#8217;re paying for it as an investor is reasonable as well. The company is trading at the extremely low end of its historical valuation range, and while nominally &#8216;expensive&#8217;, we think that DDOG&#8217;s continued growth prospects warrant such a premium.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Ultimately, we rate DDOG a &#8216;Strong Buy&#8217;.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Let&#8217;s dive in and explore further.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Financial Results<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As always, let&#8217;s start by breaking down DDOG&#8217;s recent financial results.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As we just mentioned, DDOG has performed extremely well, financially, since IPO:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/51481993-16977066653761144.png\" alt=\"DDOG\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Seeking Alpha<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The company has beaten on both top and bottom line <em>every single quarter<\/em> since it has been a public company.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This is an unbelievable feat, not easily pulled off.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In that time, the company has grown EPS from 1 cent per share to 36 cents per share as of last report, and revenue has grown from $95 million per quarter to over $500 million per quarter in that time.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Zooming out, we can see that DDOG&#8217;s TTM free cash flow has also exploded since IPO, growing from $10 million in 2019 to $454 million today:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/51481993-1697706949328779.png\" alt=\"DDOG\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">TradingView<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This represents a healthy FCF margin of 23%, which, when combined with the nearly ~40% TTM revenue growth, puts DDOG&#8217;s growth and margin profile into rarified air.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As Gary Alexander pointed out in his recent article, DDOG is a card-carrying member of the &#8220;Rule Of 40&#8221; club:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<p>Very few companies growing as quickly as Datadog are able to achieve meaningful profitability. Datadog has 20%+ pro forma operating margins. On top of 20%+ revenue growth, this puts Datadog into a stratospheric &#8220;Rule of 40&#8221; club, which is rare in the current environment.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Curious what other stocks fit into this group? Check out the list below:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/51481993-16977056850142102.png\" alt=\"DDOG\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">TradingView<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Many of these stocks like ServiceNow (NOW), Atlassian (TEAM), and The Trade Desk (TTD) are some of the biggest multi-baggers of the last few years. This is a path that seems reasonable for DDOG to follow due to two main reasons:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">1.) Product Suite<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">2.) Market Opportunity<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Let&#8217;s take a look at each of these factors a bit more.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Product Suite<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">What has DDOG done to achieve such strong growth?<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In short, DDOG is a SaaS company that sells a critical component of many modern tech stacks:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<p>Our SaaS platform integrates and automates infrastructure monitoring, application performance monitoring, log management, real-user monitoring, and many other capabilities to provide unified, real-time observability and security for our customers&#8217; entire technology stack. Datadog is used by organizations of all sizes and across a wide range of industries to enable digital transformation and cloud migration, drive collaboration among development, operations, security, and business teams, accelerate time to market for applications, reduce time to problem resolution, secure applications and infrastructure, understand user behavior and track key business metrics.<\/p>\n<p>We generate revenue from the sale of subscriptions to customers using our cloud-based platform. The terms of our subscription agreements are primarily monthly or annual. Customers also have the option to purchase additional products, such as additional containers to monitor, custom metrics packages, anomaly detection and app analytics.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Today, as companies continue to digitize their operations to increase efficiency, managing, monitoring, and securing all of that technology can be a real hassle for IT admins.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Datadog makes it easy by unifying a company&#8217;s digital \/ operational records. This drastically simplifies the process of understanding the scope of a company&#8217;s digital footprint, pinpointing technology issues, and discovering security vulnerabilities.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">While simple in concept, DDOG&#8217;s main product suite has real &amp; ongoing value to customers. This is especially true going into the future, as trends towards digitization are only increasing.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">For that reason, it should remain a sticky product in many of the IT stacks of tomorrow.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Given the high switching costs, it also seems reasonable to us that new revenue \/ clients will have extremely high lifetime value (LTV) for the company &#8211; a massive long term \/ compounding tailwind.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Market Opportunity<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Datadog&#8217;s total addressable market (TAM) is estimated to be <strong>$62 billion in 2026<\/strong>, up from $41 billion in 2022.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">For reference, Datadog&#8217;s TAM includes all organizations that use cloud computing and other IT infrastructure. This includes a wide range of businesses, from small businesses to large enterprises.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This number is key because it means that DDOG has only a sliver of penetration into the potential market opportunity. In other words, there&#8217;s still a ton of room to grow its business.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This growth is being driven by a number of factors, including:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>The increasing adoption of cloud computing<\/li>\n<li>The growing complexity of IT environments<\/li>\n<li>The rising demand for observability and monitoring solutions<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In addition, Datadog is constantly innovating and adding new features to its platform. For example, the company recently announced the launch of Datadog Security, a new product that helps organizations monitor and respond to security threats.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">These types of launches only expand the TAM over time.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Taken together, the company&#8217;s sticky product, long tail revenue advantages, solid operational results and massive market opportunity make it a compelling &#8216;box&#8217; to own.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Valuation<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">But what about the price? How much are you paying for said box?<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Well, as we mentioned at the start of the article, nominally, you&#8217;re paying a lot: 15 times sales and 63 times free cash flow. When compared with the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s long term FCF multiple of ~16, this looks very expensive.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">However, this &#8216;expensive&#8217; price is softened by some context.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">First, when looking at the other similarly sized &#8220;Rule Of 40&#8221; peers, DDOG is priced in the middle of the pack on Revenue:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/51481993-16977089337313988.png\" alt=\"DDOG\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">TradingView<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The Trade Desk sits at the top of the list with a top line multiple of 22x and an FCF multiple of 71x. This peer&#8217;s valuation (while also very expensive compared to the S&amp;P), makes sense in the wider context of this cohort&#8217;s growth story, thus making DDOG look less pricey.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Being in the middle of the pack vs. peers also means that as long as DDOG keeps its growth status alive, it&#8217;s unlikely to sink considerably out of the valuation tier to which it currently belongs. Paradoxically, this also highlights the largest risk with owning DDOG &#8211; a slowdown in growth.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Additionally, when looking at DDOG&#8217;s own historical valuation, 15x sales and 63x FCF are relatively attractive:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/51481993-16977091037023375.png\" alt=\"DDOg\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">TradingView<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">It&#8217;s true that much of this time was a period of unprecedented monetary easing which set the stage for wild sales multiples, but it still shows that there is potentially room to multiples to actually expand, should rates begin to drop. Remember &#8211; DDOG has this 14x top line valuation in a time when the 10 Year risk free rate is at ~5%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Finally, the valuation looks cheaper once you consider the company&#8217;s continued growth.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">If projections hold, in three years, DDOG is trading at only 6.6x 2026 sales &#8211; a more than 50% cut in the present multiple you get for investing now.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The discount is similar on a profit basis.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">There&#8217;s a great quote out there by Hedge Fund Manager Steve Mandel:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<p>&#8220;I don&#8217;t need an analyst to tell me when a 10 PE stock is cheap. I need an analyst to tell me when a 40 PE stock is cheap.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The implication of this quote is that finding value is much less obvious when you&#8217;re searching in nominally &#8216;expensive&#8217; names.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">That said, it can be one of the best places for investors to make money.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Risks<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">There are some risks to investing in DDOG.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">First off, the stock is volatile. Very volatile.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This is often the case with stocks that are growing very fast &#8211; the potential variance of outcome is massive. So, if you&#8217;re investing here, be sure that you won&#8217;t need it at an inopportune time where you may need to sell for a loss.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Additionally, the key risk here is any slowing to DDOG&#8217;s growth story. that will tank the multiple and hurt the stock considerably. Slowdowns in growth lead to second order consequences. Sure, sales are lower than expected which means that the multiple needs to re-rate for now, but FY2 and FY3 need to be adjusted significantly, which leads to a much bigger write down by the market.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Watching DDOG&#8217;s earnings that are coming up on November 7th, and all of the future earnings reports, will be key as an investor.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">We don&#8217;t see any real secular risks that <em>should<\/em> hurt DDOG&#8217;s prospects aside from key personnel leaving, but the chance of black swan events is always there. Size your position accordingly.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Summary<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">All in all, DDOG is a well-oiled machine with a sticky, long tail product, solid financial discipline, great margins, strong growth, and a reasonable valuation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The main risk is that there&#8217;s a hit to the company&#8217;s growth story, but aside from that, if the marketing team can continue to land and expand clients, and the product team can continue to increase the potential TAM for DDOG&#8217;s products, then investing at the present moment seems like a great long-term bet.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">We rate DDOG a &#8216;Strong Buy&#8217;.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">If you enjoyed this article, then give us a follow and send it to a friend who might enjoy it.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Cheers!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4642079-datadog-stock-ultimate-garp-play-buy?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If you would, close your eyes for a moment and think about what the ideal investment looks like. This, of course, will&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3607,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-3606","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Datadog Stock: The Ultimate GARP Play (NASDAQ:DDOG) | inFundPros<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"If you would, close your eyes for a moment and think about what the ideal investment looks like. 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