{"id":3858,"date":"2023-10-21T00:13:42","date_gmt":"2023-10-21T00:13:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/markets\/why-teslas-stock-may-have-passed-its-peak\/"},"modified":"2023-10-21T00:13:43","modified_gmt":"2023-10-21T00:13:43","slug":"why-teslas-stock-may-have-passed-its-peak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=3858","title":{"rendered":"Why Tesla\u2019s Stock May Have Passed Its Peak"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Tesla<fbs-ticker data-name=\"TSLA\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/tesla\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  TSLA<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> stock has fallen 46% from its peak price of $407 a share in November 2021. Here\u2019s why I think its shares might fall further:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Failure to deliver expected revenue and earnings results<\/li>\n<li>Trouble with its Cybertruck model<\/li>\n<li>Fear of betting on lower-cost cars<\/li>\n<li>Price cuts fail to boost sales<\/li>\n<li>False hope for a surge in self-driving cars<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Tesla expressed concern about cutting its costs low enough to make its vehicles affordable. \u201cI\u2019m worried about the high interest rate environment we\u2019re in,\u201d Tesla CEO Elon Musk said in the earnings call, according to <em>CNBC.<\/em> \u201cIf interest rates remain high or if they go even higher, it\u2019s that much harder for people to buy the car. I just can\u2019t emphasize enough how important cost is. \u2026. We have to make our products more affordable so people can buy it,\u201d Musk concluded.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Failure To Deliver Expected Results<\/h2>\n<p>Tesla\u2019s third quarter report fell short of expectations on many dimensions, including the following:<\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Revenue: $23.4 billion, versus<\/strong> $24.1 billion expected, <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/10\/19\/tesla-shares-sink-6percent-following-earnings-commentary-by-elon-musk.html\">CNBC<\/em> reported.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Earnings per share: 66 cents, versus<\/strong> 73 cents per share expected, according to <em>CNBC<\/em>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Q3 Deliveries: 435,059<\/strong> a figure well below expectations and down 6% vs. Q2, according to <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.investors.com\/news\/tesla-earnings-slide-37-cybertruck-coming-margins-bottomed\/\">Investor\u2019s Business Daily<\/em>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Price cut on model 3 RWD: $1,250<\/strong> to $38,990, <em>IBD<\/em> reported.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Price cut on Model Y Long Range: $2,000<\/strong> to $48,490, noted <em>IBD<\/em>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Gross profit margin: 17.9% <\/strong>\u2014 0.3 percentage points lower than analysts\u2019 consensus, according to FactSet. <em>CNBC<\/em> attributed this to Tesla \u201caggressively [cutting] vehicle prices throughout the year.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Two analysts view the Q3 report as evidence Tesla\u2019s stock is overvalued. To justify Tesla\u2019s stock price, investors have to believe it \u201ccan achieve very high volumes and high operating margins, akin to technology or software companies, not traditional auto companies,\u201d Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi told <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.autoblog.com\/2023\/10\/19\/tesla-is-increasingly-looking-like-a-regular-auto-company-says-one-analyst\/\">Bloomberg<\/em>.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Trouble With Cybertruck<\/h2>\n<p>Tesla shared disappointing news Wednesday regarding its Cybertruck model. Although the company said in the earnings call that it \u201cremains on track for initial deliveries this year\u201d starting November 30, Musk told investors, \u201cIt will take a year to 18 months before it is a significant positive cashflow contributor,\u201d <em>CNBC<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<p>Musk estimated Tesla will reach 250,000 Cybertruck units produced per year \u201csometime in 2025.\u201d Despite imminent shipments, the company \u201cstill hasn&#8217;t released prices or key specs that would affect Cybertruck demand and profitability,\u201d <em>CNBC <\/em>noted.<\/p>\n<p>Tesla\u2019s slow Cybertruck progress means \u201cTesla\u2019s car business faces leaner times well into 2024,\u201d the <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/business\/autos\/tesla-is-hitting-the-brakes-on-everything-but-ai-3ef7ce85?mod=hp_lista_pos2\">Wall Street Journal<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Fear Of Betting On Lower-Cost Cars<\/h2>\n<p>Tesla is blaming high interest rates for putting the brakes on its next-generation vehicle. Since an early March investor day, Tesla had not said much about its progress developing a lower-priced vehicle at a new plant in Mexico, the <em>Journal <\/em>reported.<\/p>\n<p>Musk told investors October 18 Tesla is slowing down this initiative. As he told investors, \u201cWe want to get a sense for what the global economy is like before we go full tilt on the Mexico factory. If interest rates start coming down, we will accelerate,&#8221; Musk noted. He expressed fear of a repeat of 2009 when General Motors<fbs-ticker data-name=\"GM\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/general-motors\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  GM<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> and Chrysler went bankrupt and Tesla was \u201changing on by a thread,\u201d the <em>Journal<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Price Cuts Are Not Boosting Sales<\/h2>\n<p>Price cuts aimed at boosting demand are not working as planned. In October 2022, Wall Street estimated such price cuts would result in about two million Tesla vehicle deliveries in 2023, Ryan Brinkman, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase<fbs-ticker data-name=\"JPM\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/jpmorgan-chase\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  JPM<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker>, told <em>Bloomberg.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The analyst expressed disappointment that price cuts did not have the desired effect. \u201cTesla has had to institute these price cuts only to sell fewer vehicles than analysts earlier expected. [Now Tesla\u2019s] \u201cvaluation looks increasingly unsustainable,\u201d Brinkman said.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\"><strong>Hopes For A Surge In Self-Driving Cars May Have Been Too High<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>While Musk is investing heavily in AI, investors are skeptical about whether a payoff \u2014 in the form of significant sales of self-driving software \u2014 is imminent.<\/p>\n<p>This week Musk waxed optimistic about AI. He said driverless cars and humanoid robots could make Tesla \u201cthe most valuable company in the world by far,\u201d noted the <em>Journal<\/em>. With capital spending up 36% in the third quarter to $2.5 billion \u2014 which he attributed to \u201cCybertruck, AI and other R&amp;D projects,\u201d it is unclear whether a payoff is near, the <em>Journal<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<p>Tesla stock has risen some 104% in 2023. Most of that strength came \u201cas investors bet on artificial-intelligence plays, with some saying Tesla has the potential to become a leading AI company,\u201d noted Bloomberg.<\/p>\n<p>Tesla\u2019s potential may take decades to realize. As it could take that long for the company to \u201cdeploy its self-driving software,\u201d according to Bloomberg. Another challenge for Tesla will be to maintain its EV industry lead as competition grows.<\/p>\n<p>One analyst said caution about Tesla is warranted. As <em>Bloomberg<\/em> reported, Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley asked, \u201cHow much of the caution is related to slowing demand for its already ubiquitous product lineup and increased competition?\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Where Tesla Stock Goes Next<\/h2>\n<p>Tesla\u2019s stock price target for the next 12 months is $266 per share, according to <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/investing\/stock\/tsla\/analystestimates\">MarketWatch<\/em>. With its shares down nearly 2% in early trading on October 20, the price target implies 23% upside.<\/p>\n<p>Yet analysts are skeptical. Here are some examples:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Bank of America<br \/>\n   <fbs-ticker data-name=\"BAC\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/bank-of-america\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n    BAC<br \/>\n   <\/fbs-ticker>: neutral rating and reduced estimates.<\/strong> Analysts lowered future estimates due to Tesla\u2019s \u201clower gross margin profile\u201d and they expressed surprise Musk spent so much time talking about the global economy, according to a BofA Thursday note.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Morgan Stanley: disappointed with Q3 results and cautious commentary. <\/strong>Its analysts wrote: \u201cIn our opinion, 3Q23 was one of the most cautious Tesla conference calls we\u2019ve heard in years,\u201d <em>CNBC <\/em>reported.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Piper Sandler: lowered price target from $300 to $290 per share. <\/strong>Analyst Alexander Potter kept an overweight rating on the shares. \u201cCybertruck and other growth initiatives are on the horizon \u2014 but still, we wouldn&#8217;t be surprised if TSLA trades sideways, at best, in the coming months,\u201d <em>IBD<\/em> noted.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>With a mere 3% of its shares sold short, according to the <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/market-data\/quotes\/TSLA\">Wall Street Journal<\/em>, don\u2019t expect short covering to protect investors should you choose to catch this falling knife.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/petercohan\/2023\/10\/20\/why-teslas-stock-may-have-passed-its-peak\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tesla TSLA stock has fallen 46% from its peak price of $407 a share in November 2021. Here\u2019s why I think its&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3859,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-3858","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Why Tesla\u2019s Stock May Have Passed Its Peak | inFundPros<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Tesla TSLA stock has fallen 46% from its peak price of $407 a share in November 2021. 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