{"id":4846,"date":"2023-10-24T03:03:34","date_gmt":"2023-10-24T03:03:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/business\/two-economic-indicators-with-spooky-significance\/"},"modified":"2023-10-24T03:03:34","modified_gmt":"2023-10-24T03:03:34","slug":"two-economic-indicators-with-spooky-significance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=4846","title":{"rendered":"Two economic indicators with spooky significance"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-editable=\"content\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-reorderable=\"content\">\n<p data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/editor-note\/instances\/editor-note-e667ae6479e496aaad504bf1099a37c4@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"editor-note\" class=\"editor-note inline-placeholder\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n  <em>A version of this story appeared in CNN Business\u2019 Nightcap newsletter. To get it in your inbox, sign up for free, <\/em><em>here<\/em>.\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/paragraph_FFE6E174-3633-9C30-B71C-5EEA3401EBC1@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n      There are two numbers floating around econ media headlines lately that are  (as we journalists love to say) psychological milestones.\n  <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/paragraph_EEDC56A4-BF8B-14D2-55F5-5EEA99A79764@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n      The numbers: five and eight. As in 5% yield on the 10-year T-bill, and 8% interest on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage. The two figures are closely related, and both are inviting ominous historical comparisons.\n  <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/paragraph_B4B1D82B-7D91-D8BE-41E7-5EEA99A9AB2B@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n      The 10-year Treasury yield, which goes up as prices fall, is flirting with 5% for the first time since 2007 (that\u2019s ominous comparison No. 1). The yield briefly breached the 5% last week, and again on Monday, before falling back down to 4.83% by the end of the trading day.\n  <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/paragraph_DC993386-1EA1-8699-2342-5EEA99AB5626@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n      There are a few reasons that the 10-year has advanced so quickly since last year, when it sat around 4%, my colleague Nicole Goodkind writes.\n  <\/p>\n<div data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/list\/instances\/paragraph_B0B4612F-1F99-7C73-B8A5-5EEA99AC1F34@published\" class=\"list \" data-editable=\"settings\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n<ul class=\"list__items list__items--ul\">\n<li class=\"list__item\"><span>Strong economic growth and elevated inflation tend to push yields higher.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"list__item\"><span>The US Treasury has issued <em>a lot <\/em>of government debt in recent months, and more could be coming soon.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"list__item\"><span>Those things bring down bond prices and push yields higher, attracting buyers.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/paragraph_53472784-A8F5-6E9F-BA0D-5EF2AFF0C9B0@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n      <strong>Why it matters<\/strong>\n  <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/paragraph_1CA21EEA-0BC4-598D-8876-5EEA99B1234B@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n      Yields on long-term bonds may sound like something you slept through in Econ 101, but the reality of their movement hits much closer to home. Higher yields lead to higher borrowing rates for your car loans, credit cards, and student debt (payments on which just returned from a three-year hiatus), and, of course, mortgages.\n  <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/paragraph_67ED988E-78EA-0AD5-6D0E-5EEA99B2FB6B@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n      The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is barreling toward 8% \u2014 a level not seen since the dot-com bubble popped in 2000. (And that is ominous historical comparison numero dos.)\n  <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/paragraph_2ABD96C4-0758-FBAE-0D11-5EEA99B4BFD0@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n      Of course, 8% isn\u2019t special on its own, it\u2019s just a round number that helps illustrate how far we\u2019ve come from just three years ago, when rates fell below 3%. And the milestone underscores just how crappy it is to try to buy a home right now. Because:\n  <\/p>\n<div data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/list\/instances\/paragraph_72E2B023-C9F8-3FA3-1130-5EEA99B52600@published\" class=\"list \" data-editable=\"settings\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n<ul class=\"list__items list__items--ul\">\n<li class=\"list__item\"><span>In addition to painfully high interest rates, prices on the homes themselves have soared. <\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"list__item\"><span>Sellers don\u2019t want to list because there are so few homes available to move into.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"list__item\"><span>Buyers are bowing out because there are so few homes on the market.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"list__item\"><span>And thus sales are at a 13-year low.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/paragraph_B1A4C932-F68A-136F-F36D-5EEA99BB5C61@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n      My colleague Anna Bahney put all those factors into context:\n  <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/paragraph_655E6FEC-15C2-72C1-A1F7-5EEA99BCAE7F@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n      Let\u2019s say you put down 20% on a median-priced home today, and finance the purchase with a 30-year fixed rate loan (currently 7.6%). That brings your monthly principal and interest payment to just over $2,500, according to ICE Mortgage Technology. That is nearly double the monthly cost from just two years ago, an increase of $1,200 a month.\n  <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/paragraph_B6ABB912-71A6-74F0-182D-5EEA99BDFF40@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n      Put another way: The monthly payment on an average home now requires 40% of the median household income, making housing the least affordable it\u2019s been since 1984.\n  <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/paragraph_84622896-C9DD-7BAA-AA65-5EEA99BFBFE0@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n      None of this is expected to change soon.\n  <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/paragraph_4EBA8254-FB43-E6C9-0FAA-5EEA99C12633@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n      To bring affordability back to long-term averages, said Andy Walden, vice president of enterprise research at ICE, it would take some combination of up to a 37% decline in home prices, mortgage rates dropping by 4 percentage points, or a 60% growth in median household incomes.\n  <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/paragraph_FB0014FB-61E0-D5EF-464F-5EEA99C3E63A@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n      \u201cUnfortunately, the upward shift in Treasury yields this week will likely make returning to \u2018normal\u2019 an even more challenging target to hit,\u201d Walden said.\n  <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/paragraph_B38C2E26-F9D9-18A8-8110-5EEA99C4447E@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n      <strong>OK, so\u2026what do we do?<\/strong>\n  <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/paragraph_316B6E0D-21E4-A537-5565-5EEA99C6595B@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n      We\u2019re in a tight spot, yes, but it is, hopefully, a transition phase. After all, as the old maxim goes, the best cure for high prices is high prices.\n  <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/paragraph_A8AE7576-12F4-0250-2620-5EEA99C89088@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n      \u201cThe sudden, rapid increase in bond yields will dissuade business investment and spending, which threatens to knock the US economic expansion off course in a way that the Federal Reserve\u2019s well-communicated incremental rate hikes did not,\u201d Moody\u2019s researchers said in a note.\n  <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/paragraph_7EB0DF95-B50B-F58A-4BC1-5EEA99CB8585@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n      The yield surge is sorta doing the Fed\u2019s work, in other words. Fed Chair Jerome Powell even acknowledged as much last week.\n  <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/paragraph_C1CDFFBD-477F-29FB-A3FD-5EEA99CE593F@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n      Wall Street appears to agree, and investors are betting that the central bank will keep interest rates steady at its policy meeting next week. For those keeping track at home: The Fed\u2019s two-day meeting starts, appropriately enough, on Halloween.\n  <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/paragraph_B038D709-16E1-E4DE-328B-5EF51E578B0F@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n      <em>Enjoying Nightcap? <\/em><em>Sign up<\/em><em> and you\u2019ll get all of this, plus some other funny stuff we liked on the internet, in your inbox every night. (OK, most nights \u2014 we believe in a four-day work week around here.)<\/em>\n  <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2023\/10\/23\/business\/nightcap-treasury-yield-mortgage-rate-milestones\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A version of this story appeared in CNN Business\u2019 Nightcap newsletter. To get it in your inbox, sign up for free, here&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4847,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-4846","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Two economic indicators with spooky significance | inFundPros<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A version of this story appeared in CNN Business\u2019 Nightcap newsletter. To get it in your inbox, sign up for free, here. 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