{"id":6668,"date":"2023-10-29T09:36:31","date_gmt":"2023-10-29T09:36:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/business\/will-bangladesh-come-to-regret-its-dash-for-gas\/"},"modified":"2023-10-29T09:36:31","modified_gmt":"2023-10-29T09:36:31","slug":"will-bangladesh-come-to-regret-its-dash-for-gas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=6668","title":{"rendered":"Will Bangladesh come to regret its dash for gas?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Meghnaghat, near the Bangladeshi capital Dhaka, was once a rural backwater of fishing hamlets and paddy fields. Today, it is dominated by the red-and-white smokestacks of gas-fired power stations.<\/p>\n

Few places illustrate the speed of the country\u2019s energy transformation better. Several plants are already active and three more are soon to open at the site, including a 590 megawatt project by Bangladesh\u2019s largest private power producer, the Summit Group. At least one more facility is planned.<\/p>\n

But there\u2019s a catch: it is not clear where the gas to power Meghnaghat\u2019s turbines is going to come from, or whether there is sufficient demand for the electricity that they, and other facilities throughout the country, can generate.<\/p>\n

Bangladesh is one of a growing number of developing countries in Asia and beyond to have bet heavily on natural gas as a \u201ctransition fuel\u201d \u2014 a reliable, affordable and cleaner alternative to coal or oil that helps reduce carbon emissions while they develop more renewable energy capacity.<\/p>\n

The International Energy Agency expects that with gas demand peaking in mature European and North American markets, countries such as Bangladesh, the Philippines and Thailand will henceforth drive much of the growth in gas consumption. Global Energy Monitor, a pro-renewables non-profit organisation, estimates that nations in south and south-east Asia plan to increase their gas-fired power capacity by more than 50 per cent.<\/p>\n

<\/source><\/source>\"Bar<\/picture><\/figure>\n

But a surge in the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has put a substantial bump in the road, with gas imported for power generation now in short supply and much more expensive than originally envisaged. <\/p>\n

After heavy investment in new gas power stations Bangladesh \u2014 a low-lying country, extremely vulnerable to climate change \u2014 is now contending with dwindling domestic gas reserves and fuel shortages triggered by the steep increases in LNG costs. This combination of factors has led to blackouts and falling foreign reserves, both of which threaten an economy celebrated globally for its rapid growth and development gains.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve developed our power sector based on the perception that [LNG] is cleaner and more widely available,\u201d says a Bangladeshi government official. \u201cNow it\u2019s a real challenge\u2009.\u2009.\u2009.\u2009The question is how we\u2019ll manage if we\u2019re not even feeding our existing plants.\u201d<\/p>\n

Critics of the oil and gas industry argue that, at a time when renewables are becoming more competitive and attractive, countries like Bangladesh risk tying their energy future to a fossil fuel that is not only not as clean as its proponents suggest, but whose supply can be erratic and its pricing volatile.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhereas coal is essentially limited to China and India, we\u2019re still seeing gas plants being announced in every single region,\u201d says Jenny Martos, a researcher at GEM. <\/p>\n

\u201cRelying on gas without having the fuel, and being subject to LNG prices, just doesn\u2019t make sense.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lower-carbon growth\u2009<\/h2>\n

Natural gas emits about half the carbon of coal for the same amount of energy, leading supporters to argue that it could help developing countries wean themselves off dirtier fuels like coal and oil while allowing their rapid economic growth to continue. Importing gas in liquefied form meant even countries with limited or no gas reserves of their own could use it. <\/p>\n

That certainly appealed in Bangladesh, whose indigenous gas supplies could not support a big expansion in power generation. When Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina came to power in 2009, the country was suffering from severe electricity shortages.<\/p>\n

To rectify this, her government rolled out incentives for private power producers to construct new generation plants powered by fossil fuels, which in addition to generous capacity payments protect them from legal challenges and prosecution. To ensure quick supply, the country also pivoted to imported fuel, buying its first LNG cargo in 2018.<\/p>\n

It worked. Electricity generation capacity soared from 5.5GW in 2009 to 23GW currently, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a think-tank. As a result, Bangladesh\u2019s entire population of 170mn now has access to electricity, compared with less than half in 2009.<\/p>\n

<\/source><\/source>\"Column<\/picture><\/figure>\n

Prioritising gas helped limit the country\u2019s dependence on coal. While coal imports have also grown, it accounts for 12 per cent of the country\u2019s generation capacity compared to 50 per cent for gas, according to the BloombergNEF, a commodity research service. In 2021, Sheikh Hasina cancelled plans to build 10 new coal-fired power plants.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Yet Bangladesh now faces problems of a different nature. Electricity demand did not keep up with the building frenzy, and total capacity now exceeds demand by as much as 50 per cent. The lack of investment in new domestic hydrocarbon exploration also means the country\u2019s domestic gas reserves are running low.<\/p>\n

That has left it at the mercy of global LNG prices. Unlike piped gas, LNG can be transported anywhere there are regasification facilities and cargoes tend to gravitate to the markets where prices are highest. Following Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, that market was Europe \u2014 prices rose so high that traders were willing to pay penalty clauses to Asian countries in return for diverting their cargoes westward.<\/p>\n

Fuel shortages and a surging energy import bill pushed Bangladesh into one of its worst crises in years, with rolling blackouts and painful inflation. Foreign currency reserves have fallen about 20 per cent this year, according to rating agency Fitch, and the country has taken out a multibillion-dollar IMF loan to steady its economy.<\/p>\n

<\/source>\"Ganosamhati<\/picture>
A protest in Dhaka against power cuts. Bangladesh is now struggling as a result of dwindling domestic gas reserves and fuel shortages<\/span> \u00a9 Sony Ramany\/NurPhoto\/Reuters <\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cPeople\u2019s lives had improved,\u201d says Khadiza, a 60-year-old vegetable vendor in Dhaka. \u201cBut now we\u2019re facing our toughest time. Before I could pay my rent and my children\u2019s expenses, and save money. Now it\u2019s all upside down.\u201d<\/p>\n

But Bangladesh\u2019s challenge is not solely down to Russia\u2019s energy war with Europe. The measures introduced over a decade ago to incentivise and fast-track the construction of power plants remain in place today \u2014 even though the country now has too many of them.<\/p>\n

This means that even as Bangladesh struggles to afford fuel, more money goes towards capacity payments for projects that have in some cases been idle for more than a year. Bangladesh\u2019s power sector subsidy burden jumped to Tk297bn (about $2.7bn) in 2022, the IEEFA said, 150 per cent higher than a year earlier.<\/p>\n

The Summit Group has been a leading beneficiary of Bangladesh\u2019s energy policies. Along with its upcoming plant in Meghnaghat, it is building several new LNG projects in addition to about 15 existing power plants. Of the Tk1tn ($9bn) of capacity payments by Sheikh Hasina\u2019s government since it came to power, Summit has in recent years been the largest private beneficiary.<\/p>\n

<\/source><\/source>\"The<\/picture>
The Summit Gazipur power plant outside Dhaka in Bangladesh. The group is building several new LNG projects in addition to about 15 existing power plants<\/span> \u00a9 Orjan Ellingvag\/Alamy<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Muhammed Aziz Khan, Summit\u2019s founder, argues that Bangladesh has no choice but to import more LNG if it wants to avoid burning coal. \u201cThe demand for energy is huge. It must be supplied,\u201d he says. \u201cIt\u2019s a moral, ethical, commercial requirement.\u201d<\/p>\n

But to critics, the continued gas buildout shows that the interests of these powerful and politically connected conglomerates have long since overtaken considerations about energy security. Khan\u2019s brother is a parliamentarian and former minister from Sheikh Hasina\u2019s ruling Awami League party. A representative for Summit did not respond to a request for comment on the matter.<\/p>\n

The electricity these private plants produce, at about Tk10 per kilowatt hour, is also roughly double the cost of that generated by state-owned companies, according to IEEFA. The losers, analysts argue, are the Bangladeshi people.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe major crisis that will be coming is energy security,\u201d says Rashed al Mahmud Titumir, an economist at the University of Dhaka. He lists the challenges: \u201cOvercapacity, high retail prices, fuel shortages and now a struggle to pay energy bills \u2014 while subsidising an oligarchic clientele.\u201d<\/p>\n

Dhaka\u2019s dash for gas<\/h2>\n

The 10 years leading up to Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine were what the IEA describes as the \u201cgolden decade of gas\u201d, during which consumption increased 25 per cent globally thanks to buyers like China.<\/p>\n

But the geopolitical turmoil has shaken confidence in LNG as a reliable fuel source, with gas prices also jolting higher on disruptions to Israeli gas production amid the conflict with Hamas.<\/p>\n

<\/source><\/source>\"A<\/picture>
Less than 3% of Bangladesh\u2019s electricity comes from renewable sources despite a 2008 plan to get to 10% by 2020<\/span> \u00a9 Anik Rahman\/Bloomberg<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

A drop in prices from last year\u2019s highs helped attract some renewed buying, with the Asian LNG benchmark price falling to $17.8 per million British thermal units (mmbtu) from an average of $34 per mmbtu last year. Bangladesh bought two LNG shipments on the spot market last month, Thailand boosted LNG imports to record levels this year and Vietnam bought its first-ever cargo.<\/p>\n

But prices are still more than double their average of $6.7 per mmbtu between 2015 and 2020. Laurent Ruseckas, executive director for gas at S&P Global Commodities, says that while gas has an important role to play in helping developing nations in Asia meet their growing power demand, pricing remains a challenge.<\/p>\n

It is further complicated by the fact that the credit risk of state-backed groups in emerging markets can be too high for producers and traders to offer them the kind of long-term supply deals that would minimise their exposure to price volatility.<\/p>\n

New supply is likely to ease prices in the coming years, with a wave of new liquefaction capacity in Qatar, Mozambique and the US from 2025 onwards expected to allow more LNG cargoes to reach world markets.<\/p>\n

<\/source><\/source>\"Bar<\/picture><\/figure>\n

What is less clear, however, is how much of that gas Europe will need and how much pressure that demand will put on prices. While the EU is targeting a steep cut in gas demand by 2030 to help eliminate its reliance on Russian fuel, Ditte Juul J\u00f8rgensen, the bloc\u2019s top energy official, has also signalled that it will need US gas for decades to come.<\/p>\n

Continued competition for supplies could still result in Asian countries that have invested in LNG infrastructure without affordable sources of the fuel losing out. The risk, analysts say, is that such countries may end up doubling down on coal, threatening the energy transition altogether. <\/p>\n

Officials in Pakistan earlier this year told Reuters LNG was \u201cno longer part of the long-term plan\u201d and that the country would quadruple coal production instead.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe economic case is not there with prices now,\u201d says Anne-Sophie Corbeau, Global Research Scholar at Columbia University\u2019s Center on Global Energy Policy. \u201cFor many of these countries, coal is cheaper, period. Gas is expensive.\u201d<\/p>\n

Missing out gas<\/h2>\n

Climate advocates argue that investment in renewables would make more sense than expanding gas-fired generation.<\/p>\n

But Bangladesh has made negligible progress towards renewables so far. Less than 3 per cent of its electricity comes from renewable sources despite a 2008 plan to get to 10 per cent by 2020.<\/p>\n

Sheikh Hasina has revived these efforts, saying that the country aims to get 40 per cent of its energy from renewable sources by 2041. But a draft version of the government\u2019s upcoming integrated energy and power master plan, seen by the Financial Times, has changed the target to \u201cclean\u201d energy, which includes technologies such as carbon capture and storage, whose large-scale viability some have questioned.<\/p>\n

Bangladesh now wants to find more domestic gas to relieve its dependence on LNG, with the draft master plan aiming to reactivate existing onshore fields and undertake \u201chigh-risk\u201d projects to explore offshore.<\/p>\n

<\/source><\/source>\"Two<\/picture>
Bangladesh now wants to find more domestic gas to relieve its dependence on LNG following Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine<\/span> <\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cThe Ukraine-Russia war taught us that if we don\u2019t have our own domestic gas then it\u2019s difficult,\u201d says the government official. Yet such projects, even if successful, will take years to develop \u2014 meaning that Bangladesh will depend on imported LNG for years to come.<\/p>\n

\u201cSome gas may be necessary,\u201d says Sam Reynolds, an energy finance analyst at IEEFA. \u201cBut what we\u2019re seeing right now is a total mismatch between what market fundamentals would dictate is necessary and what investor proposals and expectations are saying.\u201d<\/p>\n

Scaling up renewable projects is admittedly complicated. Analysts say land is in short supply in the densely populated country, while financial incentives continue to make fossil fuel projects more attractive to the private sector, resulting in a shortage of funding for renewables.<\/p>\n

Some investment has begun to trickle in. Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia\u2019s ACWA Power agreed to a joint venture to build a solar plant, while Summit also announced it would invest $3bn in projects to import clean electricity from renewable energy-rich neighbours like India and Nepal.<\/p>\n

Ruseckas says the lack of local supply chains for the construction of renewable capacity means that it\u2019s not \u201cseen as plausible to skip gas\u201d in countries like Bangladesh. \u201cYou still need gas in those markets. The challenge for those countries is how to fit it into the energy system and make prices work.\u201d<\/p>\n

But others argue that Bangladesh risks missing an opportunity. BloombergNEF suggests that the policy document has \u201cignored or underestimated\u201d the country\u2019s renewable potential, with solar electricity set to become cheaper than power from fossil fuels in the coming years.<\/p>\n

Gas will result in a \u201cnever-ending transition\u201d, says Hasan Mehedi, an activist with Bangladesh\u2019s Coastal Livelihood and Environmental Action Network, arguing that the country should prioritise leapfrogging to solar. <\/p>\n

\u201cWhy should you develop more and more [gas-fired] power plants when you don\u2019t have enough gas?\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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