{"id":7441,"date":"2023-10-31T06:20:04","date_gmt":"2023-10-31T06:20:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/news\/amdocs-a-low-risk-company-with-a-high-yield-and-cheap-valuation-nasdaqdox\/"},"modified":"2023-10-31T06:20:05","modified_gmt":"2023-10-31T06:20:05","slug":"amdocs-a-low-risk-company-with-a-high-yield-and-cheap-valuation-nasdaqdox","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=7441","title":{"rendered":"Amdocs: A Low-Risk Company With A High Yield And Cheap Valuation (NASDAQ:DOX)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<p><figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture>  <\/picture><figcaption> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<h2>Investment thesis<\/h2>\n<p>Our current investment thesis is:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Amdocs is a fantastic business that could represent a low-risk staple in most portfolios. The company has an NTM FCF yield of ~8% and limited margin variability. Its growth will not set the world on<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> fire but there are sufficient tailwinds to ensure above-inflation growth long term.<\/span> <\/li>\n<li class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">From a downside perspective, investors are protected by the long-term relationships the company has developed, its market-leading capabilities, and its consistently high backlog. It\u2019s a critical support function for many leading telecoms\/media companies, limiting lost contracts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Company description<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Amdocs (<span class=\"ticker-hover-wrapper\">NASDAQ:DOX<\/span>) is a leading software and services provider to the world&#8217;s most successful communications and media companies. With a range of innovative solutions, Amdocs helps service providers deliver a seamless customer experience, enabling them to navigate the challenges of the digital world.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Share price<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"sa-widget sa-ycharts paywall-full-content invisible\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/saupload_57ff1e11a94162ee53b76fc4a7421ddd.png\" alt=\"Chart\" width=\"635\" height=\"366\" class=\"sa-ycharts-img\" data-width=\"635\" data-height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\"><figcaption>Data by YCharts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Amdocs share price performance has been respectable, returning over 100% to shareholders and slightly lagging behind the wider market. This has been generated through positive financial improvement and a moderate development of its valuation\/investor sentiment.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Financial analysis<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/55358919-1698687922592523.png\" alt=\"DOX\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span><\/span>Amdocs financials (Capital IQ)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Presented above are Amdocs&#8217; financial results.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Revenue &amp; Commercial Factors<\/h3>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Amdocs\u2019 revenue has grown moderately well during the last decade, with a CAGR of +4%. This growth has been consistent, fluctuating between 2-7%. EBITDA\u2019s consistency has exceeded even this, with margins between 18-19%.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Business Model<\/h3>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Amdocs offers end-to-end solutions for telecommunications and media companies. Its suite includes customer relationship management, billing, data analytics, digital services, and more. By providing a comprehensive set of services that are constantly expanding, it becomes a one-stop solution for its clients, fostering long-term partnerships. Amdocs has a strong global presence, serving clients in numerous countries.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The following are examples of projects currently progressing with leading firms across a range of services.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/55358919-1698687946020236.png\" alt=\"Amdoc\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\"><span><\/span>Projects (Amdocs)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">By specializing in the telecommunications and media sectors, Amdocs tailors its services to the unique challenges and needs of these industries, allowing the company to specialize and hone deep domain expertise. This creates a positive innovation cycle, allowing for an understanding of sector-specific weaknesses and areas of exploitation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Amdocs invests significantly in R&amp;D, ensuring its technologies remain cutting-edge. Most recently, this development has been in the areas of AI-driven analytics, cloud-based services, 5G, and digital transformation tools. We believe its services in these segments will drive revenue growth in the coming years, particularly if its AI solutions are compelling relative to its alternatives. Amdocs\u2019 relationships with leading providers have fostered trust, allowing it to pitch these new solutions and generate upselling potential.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Amdocs strategically acquires companies that complement its services or provide access to new technologies and markets. These acquisitions broaden its offering and have allowed it to strengthen its competitive position, contributing to consistent growth and margin protection.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Margins<\/h3>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/55358919-16986879692856698.png\" alt=\"EBITDA\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Margins <span>(Capital IQ)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Amdocs\u2019 margins have been impressively consistent, with minimal volatility during the last decade. This is a reflection of its strong competitive position, allowing the company to maintain progressive pricing at its margin premium without dilution. This said, the company lacks any material economies of scale beyond its existing level, likely due to reinvestment of any gains into customer acquisition to drive revenue.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Quarterly results<\/h3>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Amdocs\u2019 impressive resilience is reflected in its recent performance, with top-line revenue growth of +7.3%, +7.3%, +6.8%, and +6.5% in its last four quarters. In conjunction with this, margins have continued to remain flat.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The company\u2019s strong results are a reflection of the ongoing nature of the services the company provides. It has a ~100% managed service renewal rate, with a number of multi-year relationships with leading companies in the space. This has allowed the company to develop a strong backlog and pipeline, allowing for a de-risked revenue unwind and a focus on future revenue generation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The broader macroeconomic environment will have an impact on the company, as softening consumer spending and inflationary pressures on supply chains contribute to financial pressure on the communications and media industry. This has contributed to softening backlog growth, although an economic recovery in the next 12-18 months will likely mean the impact on the company is not significant.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Key takeaways from its most recent quarter are:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>Revenue growth in North America is up 5.4% and 28.2% in Europe, reflecting strong growth across key geographies.<\/li>\n<li>Managed services revenue of $720m, equivalent to ~58% of total revenue, which as we understand has an impressive renewal rate, essentially representing \u201crecurring\u201d revenue.<\/li>\n<li>Backlog of $4.14b, up ~5% YoY, reflecting a slowdown but still strong growth relative to the wider market.<\/li>\n<li>Although margins have been broadly flat for an extended period, profitability has stepped up, reflecting a renewed focus on operational excellence.<\/li>\n<li>Amdocs launched \u201camAIz\u201d, an enterprise-grade Generative AI framework. Management considers this an impressive offering for its clients, seeking strong uptake.<\/li>\n<li>Amdocs completed the acquisition of TEOCO&#8217;s service assurance business for a net consideration of ~$90m.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Balance sheet &amp; Cash Flows<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Management takes a highly conservative capital allocation approach, with no material debt usage. This has allowed for FCF reinvestment in acquisitions, as well as distributions to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The company has spent &gt;$1.5b on M&amp;A, none of which have materially diluted ROE or margins. Further, dividends have grown at a 9% rate while buybacks at a 10% rate. We consider this highly attractive for investors.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/55358919-16986879928295784.png\" alt=\"ROE ROIC ORA\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">ROE <span>(Capital IQ)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Outlook<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/55358919-16986880186428928.png\" alt=\"DCF Consensus\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Outlook <span>(Capital IQ)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Presented above is Wall Street&#8217;s consensus view on the coming years.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Analysts are forecasting a slight improvement in growth alongside flat margins. The improvement in growth is likely a reflection of technological advancements within Amdocs\u2019 sphere of expertise, such as AI and 5G, allowing it to accelerate. Further, its lack of margin improvement is likely to mean future gains are immaterial.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Industry analysis<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/55358919-16986880400664568.png\" alt=\"growth stocks\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">IT Consulting and Other Services Stocks <span>(Seeking Alpha)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Presented above is a comparison of Amdocs&#8217; growth and profitability to the average of its industry, as defined by Seeking Alpha (21 companies).<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Amdocs performs well relative to its peers. The company\u2019s margins are superior to its peers and have generally shown better consistency. The company\u2019s commercial position underpins this, with strong industry relationships and deep expertise.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The company is lacking in growth, however. The company\u2019s maturity is likely partially the reason for this but also the growth potential of the industry. Although we see good scope for cross and up-selling, we believe the runway for organic growth is far more limited given its more niche focus.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Valuation<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/55358919-16986880743811853.png\" alt=\"DCF\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Valuation <span>(Capital IQ)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Amdocs is currently trading at 11x LTM EBITDA and 9x NTM EBITDA. This is a discount to its historical average.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">We believe there is good justification for a premium to its historical average. With technological development, particularly from AI and 5G, there is reasonable scope for Amdocs to accelerate its growth trajectory and potentially improve its margins through software. From a downside perspective, Amdocs is equivalent to its historical average, which implies upside of 4-8% on an EBITDA basis.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Further, Amdocs is trading at a ~27% discount to its peers on an LTM EBITDA basis and ~51% on a NTM P\/E basis. This discount is heavily weighted toward the company\u2019s lack of growth but we feel it does not wholly appreciate its profitability. The company can consistently distribute heavily to shareholders and has shown an ability to generate growth above inflation. Again, this suggests upside in our view.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Confirming our view is its NTM FCF yield. This is currently 1.8ppts above its decade average at ~8%. This is objectively an impressive yield at a time when treasuries are at 5%, particularly given its strong competitive position and limited margin volatility. This is a supremely attractive investment for risk-averse investors.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure a-c paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/55358919-16986880922066934.png\" alt=\"EV EPS\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Valuation evolution <span>(Capital IQ)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Key risks with our thesis<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The risks to our current thesis are:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>Market saturation.<\/li>\n<li>Inability to keep up with technological advancements.<\/li>\n<li>Increased competition leading to reduced market share.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Final thoughts<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Amdocs is a fantastic business in our view and the definition of consistency. We struggle to see anything that can deviate from its current trajectory, owing to the quality of the services it provides, in conjunction with consistent innovation and new tailwinds through technological development.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Although the company\u2019s runway for growth is not substantial, its profitability and FCF generation should allow for strong financial results directly to shareholders. At an FCF yield of ~8%, the stock is on sale in our view.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4645248-amdocs-a-low-risk-company-with-a-high-yield-and-cheap-valuation?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Investment thesis Our current investment thesis is: Amdocs is a fantastic business that could represent a low-risk staple in most portfolios. The&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7442,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-7441","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Amdocs: A Low-Risk Company With A High Yield And Cheap Valuation (NASDAQ:DOX) | inFundPros<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Investment thesis Our current investment thesis is: Amdocs is a fantastic business that could represent a low-risk staple in most portfolios. 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