{"id":8057,"date":"2023-11-01T11:28:03","date_gmt":"2023-11-01T11:28:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/business\/why-putin-toned-down-his-nuclear-rhetoric\/"},"modified":"2023-11-01T11:28:03","modified_gmt":"2023-11-01T11:28:03","slug":"why-putin-toned-down-his-nuclear-rhetoric","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=8057","title":{"rendered":"Why Putin toned down his nuclear rhetoric"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Alone in a windowless room in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin last week presided over Russia\u2019s nuclear forces as they rehearsed a massive retaliatory strike from air, land, and sea.<\/p>\n

Simulating a radioactive mushroom cloud that could render much of the planet uninhabitable served as a stark reminder of the nuclear deterrent the Russian president still has at his disposal. <\/p>\n

The posturing, experts say, is Putin\u2019s way of keeping nuclear tensions at a simmer even as he dialled down threats that had alarmed allies and foes alike about the war in Ukraine turning into an atomic conflagration.<\/p>\n

The Russian leader first stoked fears he could carry out a limited nuclear strike in Ukraine in a speech on the eve of the 2022 full-scale invasion. He then vowed to \u201cuse all the means at our disposal\u201d to defend Russia\u2019s conquests when he annexed four Ukrainian regions six months later.<\/p>\n

Those threats prompted the US, UK and France to vow retaliation with conventional weapons, according to current and former officials. Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who has otherwise given tacit backing to Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine, has also personally warned Putin against using nuclear weapons, including at a face-to-face meeting in March, officials said.<\/p>\n

Putin admitted last autumn it would make no \u201cpolitical or military sense\u201d to use tactical nuclear weapons and largely stopped talking about his atomic arsenal.<\/p>\n

<\/source>\"Vladimir<\/picture>
Vladimir Putin\u2019s toned-down rhetoric does not mean the nuclear threat from Russia has disappeared, western analysts warn <\/span> \u00a9 Gavriil Grigorov\/Sputnik\/Kremlin Pool\/AP<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cIt became clear that nobody likes the idea of nuclear weapons being involved in this war, and there was strong opposition from many countries, including those close to Putin,\u201d said Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva. <\/p>\n

Instead, in recent months, Russia has explored other ways to use its atomic arsenal as a deterrent against western support for Ukraine. While these measures fall short of outright threats, they attempt to show Russia\u2019s determination in Ukraine, and the broader cost of standing in its way. <\/p>\n

Last month, the Russian parliament de-ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. The move could pave the way for atomic testing to resume for the first time since the Soviet Union collapsed, though Russia has said it will only do so in response to possible US tests.<\/p>\n

Moscow also carried out a \u201cfinal test\u201d on a new missile Putin says has potentially unlimited range; deployed tactical nuclear weapons to neighbouring Belarus; and suspended its participation in the New Start treaty, the last major arms control deal still in force with the US. <\/p>\n

\u201cThere was an understanding that Russia won\u2019t gain any friends by putting emphasis on its nuclear weapons,\u201d said Podvig. \u201cSo the de-ratification of CTBT was a kind of compromise, if you will, between those who want a strong stick and those who realise it would be counterproductive.\u201d<\/p>\n

Western countries have so far reacted with restraint to Russia\u2019s tests of its advanced new weapons systems, which have been plagued by delays and failed launches. <\/p>\n

\u201cSome of these are truly exotic systems that don\u2019t particularly have any real military value,\u201d Podvig said. \u201cThey allow Putin to say, we have a response and this is something that nobody else has. So it makes him happy, which in today\u2019s Russia is no small thing.\u201d<\/p>\n

In Moscow, the measures taken in regards to the nuclear arsenal were portrayed as a sign of Russia successfully containing the west. \u201cLess talk, more action,\u201d said Dmitry Trenin, a prominent foreign policy academic who favours nuclear sabre-rattling to \u201cbring back fear\u201d in western capitals.<\/p>\n

Putin\u2019s moves showed he had realised that Russia\u2019s attempts to deter the west from supporting Ukraine \u201cneed significant strengthening\u201d, Trenin said. \u201cThis is an important step towards adapting our peacetime containment policy to the conditions of a real war, an indirect one for now.\u201d In winning the war in Ukraine, Trenin said, \u201cRussia will look at all the resources it has without exception, including heightened nuclear containment.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/source>\"In<\/picture>
The Russian army\u2019s Iskander missile launchers and support vehicles prepare to deploy for drills in January 2022<\/span> \u00a9 Russian Defense Ministry\/AP<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Hardliners in Moscow meanwhile are worrying that Russia risks looking weak in the absence of a credible atomic threat and have started advocating for pre-emptive nuclear strikes. <\/p>\n

In June, Sergei Karaganov, another influential academic, wrote an article urging Russia \u201cto hit a bunch of targets in a number of countries in order to bring those who have lost their mind to reason\u201d and end western support for Ukraine. Last month, Karaganov advocated for Putin to revise Russia\u2019s nuclear doctrine \u201cto lower the nuclear threshold and go firmly, but quite quickly up the escalation ladder to contain and sober up our partners\u201d.<\/p>\n

Putin, who said he was familiar with Karaganov\u2019s proposals, has argued there was no need to alter the doctrine, listing the successful test of his \u201cinvincible\u201d ballistic missiles and the de-ratification of the CTBT. <\/p>\n

But within Russia\u2019s propaganda machine, some nuclear hawks are becoming louder and more unhinged.<\/p>\n

Dmitry Medvedev, who served as president and prime minister of Russia, mused on X, formerly Twitter, that the \u201cApocalypse revelations are drawing nearer\u201d as western countries supplied Ukraine with more advanced weapons. Margarita Simonyan, editor of state news network RT, proposed detonating a thermonuclear weapon in the atmosphere hundreds of kilometres above Siberia to take out telecommunications and send a \u201cpainful\u201d message to the west. Siberian officials demanded an apology. <\/p>\n

Western analysts warn that Putin\u2019s toned-down rhetoric does not mean the nuclear threat has disappeared. <\/p>\n

\u201cThey have realised they need to go beyond rhetoric to keep up the spectre of nuclear escalation risk over this conflict,\u201d said Hanna Notte, director of the Eurasia non-proliferation programme at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. <\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s broad signalling that Russia is dead serious in this conflict and that this stand-off with the west over Ukraine elevates nuclear risks in Europe.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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