{"id":9097,"date":"2023-11-03T12:55:10","date_gmt":"2023-11-03T12:55:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/markets\/blackstones-jon-gray-is-watching-for-signs-of-a-slowdown-in-the-u-s-economy\/"},"modified":"2023-11-03T12:55:11","modified_gmt":"2023-11-03T12:55:11","slug":"blackstones-jon-gray-is-watching-for-signs-of-a-slowdown-in-the-u-s-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=9097","title":{"rendered":"Blackstone\u2019s Jon Gray is watching for signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy"},"content":{"rendered":"

Jon Gray, the president of Blackstone Group, the world\u2019s biggest alternative-asset investment firm with $1 trillion under management, is watching for signs of an economic slowdown in the coming months, he told MarketWatch in an interview in late October. <\/p>\n

\u201cSo I think the Fed is going to slow the economy. And that\u2019s really their objective, right?\u201d Gray said.<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cThey want the labor market to be less tight. They want to slow economic activity and drive prices down in the process, and the old line [that] you can\u2019t fight the Fed \u2014 I think that holds true,\u201d he said in the interview, which appears in video form below.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n Jon Gray: \u2018The Fed is going to slow the economy.\u2019
\n <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

Gray runs the day-to-day operations of a private-equity and real-estate investing behemoth, which also has large hedge-fund and credit operations. It is arguably the top firm on Wall Street, landing Gray on the MarketWatch 50 list of the most influential people in markets. <\/p>\n

Gray\u2019s comments about the Federal Reserve\u2019s battle with inflation and the likelihood of an economic slowdown as a byproduct of that showdown were made days before last week\u2019s reading of gross domestic product, a blockbuster report that showed the U.S. economy grew at an eye-watering 4.9% annualized pace in the third quarter \u2014 the most robust GDP reading in years.<\/p>\n

Estimates leading up to the GDP report suggested that that measure of economic output could even have been north of 5%.<\/p>\n

Still, a 4.9% third-quarter reading \u2014 fueled by an outburst of consumer spending \u2014 seems to defy expectations of an impending slowdown. <\/p>\n

Peter Morici:<\/strong> The Fed must push the economy into recession or inflation won\u2019t get back to 2%<\/p>\n

Also read: <\/strong>Gundlach says \u2018massive interest-expense problem\u2019 could cause next U.S. financial crisis<\/p>\n

And expectations for any significant retrenchment have been defied time and time again in the aftermath of the pandemic and as the Federal Reserve has catapulted benchmark interest rates from levels at or near 0% to a current range of 5.25% to 5.5%.<\/p>\n

Gray, however, warned against being fooled by signs of economic vitality, including the strength of U.S. growth as measured by GDP.<\/p>\n

\u201cAlthough the Fed is slowing things down, you know, the train had a lot of momentum,\u201d said Gray, referring, in part, to fiscal measures such as pandemic-era stimulus payments. <\/p>\n

\u201cSo I think they will slow this down. But I do think that momentum means that the the level of deceleration will not be nearly as bad as \u2026 we experienced back in [the 2008-09 recession],\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t miss:<\/strong> Powell adds fuel to the talk that the Fed is done hiking rates<\/p>\n

It wouldn\u2019t be unprecedented for the U.S. economy to deteriorate substantially from here. <\/p>\n

MarketWatch\u2019s Jeff Bartash writes that the economy grew at solid 2.5% pace right before that so-called Great Recession, which ended in 2009, for example. <\/p>\n

Bartash also notes that GDP showed the economy expanding at a frothy 4.4% in the first quarter of 1990, just months before a recession started.<\/p>\n

What could a slowing economy look like this time around? <\/p>\n

Gray shared thoughts on that: \u201cHere it feels like we\u2019re going in on firmer footing. But it does mean that the unemployment rate will likely go up, and it does mean that you\u2019ll see less growth going forward.\u201d <\/p>\n

The unemployment rate currently stands at 3.8%.<\/p>\n

More from Gray:<\/p>\n

And when we look at our companies, interestingly, in our private-equity portfolio in the third quarter, revenue growth was still pretty good \u2014 high single digits. But when we look at the sequential path, it\u2019s generally lower levels of growth, and when we look at their hiring plans it\u2019s much more modest than it was 12 months ago. So I think it points to a slowdown. It\u2019s hard to say \u2014 back to your question \u2014 just how deep this slowdown will be.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Higher bond rates are also creating stiff headwinds for financial markets and the economy more broadly because they mean the cost of capital is substantially higher that it was even 18 months ago. <\/p>\n

That will weigh on consumers and businesses alike, and that is by design. <\/p>\n

Speaking at the Economic Club of New York in\u00a0mid-October, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the whole point of raising interest rates is to \u201caffect financial conditions, and higher bond rates are producing tighter financial conditions right now.\u201d<\/p>\n

And rates on everything from automobile loans to mortgages have responded in textbook fashion. A typical 30-year mortgage, frequently quoted at around 8% of late, carries its highest rate in two decades, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury note
\n BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
\n recently hit its highest yield in about 16 years, before pulling back. <\/p>\n

Don<\/strong>\u2018t miss: <\/strong>Yellen credits economy\u2019s resilience for the rise in long-term bond yields<\/p>\n

Stocks have been sputtering lower lately, too, due to competition from T-bills and other government debt perceived as low-risk. <\/p>\n

Over the past 30 days, the Nasdaq Composite
\n COMP
\n has suffered a decline of more than 4.6%, while the S&P 500
\n SPX
\n has skidded 3.8% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
\n DJIA
\n is looking at a fall of 2.6%, according to FactSet.<\/p>\n

See:<\/strong> The Nasdaq just fell into a correction. Now what?<\/p>\n

Equity markets, which had been mostly buoyant amid calls for a recession in 2022, may now be succumbing to the pressure. <\/p>\n

Of course, Gray isn\u2019t alone in anticipating the economy could experience a decline. There are others who are preparing for a more severe pullback.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat we should not do is take this as a signal of the all-clear for 2024,\u201d Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC after the GDP report last Thursday.<\/p>\n

He, for one, sees the combination of higher yields and the wind-down of consumer savings as too much for the economy to bear.<\/p>\n

Prominent money managers Bill Gross and Bill Ackman also have warned that a long-expected economic downturn has now begun. Gross goes as far as to say that a recession could still happen before the end of this year.<\/p>\n

That may be hard to see now with markets levitating and the Fed suggesting, in its most-recent meeting policy announcement, that it might be reluctant to deliver further interest-rate increases. <\/p>\n

Read on:<\/strong>\u00a0Yellen says she doesn\u2019t see signs of recession after GDP report<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jon Gray, the president of Blackstone Group, the world\u2019s biggest alternative-asset investment firm with $1 trillion under management, is watching for signs…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9098,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-9097","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets"},"yoast_head":"\nBlackstone\u2019s Jon Gray is watching for signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy | inFundPros<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Jon Gray, the president of Blackstone Group, the world\u2019s biggest alternative-asset investment firm with $1 trillion under management, is watching for\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=9097\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Blackstone\u2019s Jon Gray is watching for signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy | inFundPros\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Jon Gray, the president of Blackstone Group, the world\u2019s biggest alternative-asset investment firm with $1 trillion under management, is watching for\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=9097\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"inFundPros\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-11-03T12:55:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-11-03T12:55:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/1699016111_social.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Press Room\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Press Room\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=9097#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=9097\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Press Room\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/#\/schema\/person\/87f7e632b195ea95c91503d9281f5eff\"},\"headline\":\"Blackstone\u2019s Jon Gray is watching for signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-11-03T12:55:10+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-11-03T12:55:11+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=9097\"},\"wordCount\":1052,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"Markets\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=9097#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=9097\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=9097\",\"name\":\"Blackstone\u2019s Jon Gray is watching for signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy | inFundPros\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-11-03T12:55:10+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-11-03T12:55:11+00:00\",\"description\":\"Jon Gray, the president of Blackstone Group, the world\u2019s biggest alternative-asset investment firm with $1 trillion under management, is watching for\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=9097#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=9097\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=9097#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Blackstone\u2019s Jon Gray is watching for signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/\",\"name\":\"Fintech Advance\",\"description\":\"Latest Finance and Tech News and Updates\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Fintech Advance\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/tech-logo.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/tech-logo.png\",\"width\":409,\"height\":70,\"caption\":\"Fintech Advance\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/#\/schema\/person\/87f7e632b195ea95c91503d9281f5eff\",\"name\":\"Press Room\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/avatar_user_1_1697230663-96x96.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/avatar_user_1_1697230663-96x96.png\",\"caption\":\"Press Room\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?author=1\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Blackstone\u2019s Jon Gray is watching for signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy | inFundPros","description":"Jon Gray, the president of Blackstone Group, the world\u2019s biggest alternative-asset investment firm with $1 trillion under management, is watching for","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=9097","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Blackstone\u2019s Jon Gray is watching for signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy | inFundPros","og_description":"Jon Gray, the president of Blackstone Group, the world\u2019s biggest alternative-asset investment firm with $1 trillion under management, is watching for","og_url":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=9097","og_site_name":"inFundPros","article_published_time":"2023-11-03T12:55:10+00:00","article_modified_time":"2023-11-03T12:55:11+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1280,"height":640,"url":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/1699016111_social.jpeg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Press Room","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Press Room","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=9097#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=9097"},"author":{"name":"Press Room","@id":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/#\/schema\/person\/87f7e632b195ea95c91503d9281f5eff"},"headline":"Blackstone\u2019s Jon Gray is watching for signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy","datePublished":"2023-11-03T12:55:10+00:00","dateModified":"2023-11-03T12:55:11+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=9097"},"wordCount":1052,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/#organization"},"articleSection":["Markets"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=9097#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=9097","url":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=9097","name":"Blackstone\u2019s Jon Gray is watching for signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy | inFundPros","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/#website"},"datePublished":"2023-11-03T12:55:10+00:00","dateModified":"2023-11-03T12:55:11+00:00","description":"Jon Gray, the president of Blackstone Group, the world\u2019s biggest alternative-asset investment firm with $1 trillion under management, is watching for","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=9097#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=9097"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=9097#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Blackstone\u2019s Jon Gray is watching for signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/","name":"Fintech Advance","description":"Latest Finance and Tech News and Updates","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/#organization","name":"Fintech Advance","url":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/tech-logo.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/tech-logo.png","width":409,"height":70,"caption":"Fintech Advance"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/#\/schema\/person\/87f7e632b195ea95c91503d9281f5eff","name":"Press Room","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/avatar_user_1_1697230663-96x96.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/avatar_user_1_1697230663-96x96.png","caption":"Press Room"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/infundpros.com"],"url":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?author=1"}]}},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9097","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9097"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9097\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9099,"href":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9097\/revisions\/9099"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/9098"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9097"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9097"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9097"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}