{"id":9360,"date":"2023-11-04T00:17:51","date_gmt":"2023-11-04T00:17:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/news\/dont-give-up-on-international-markets-dollar-chart\/"},"modified":"2023-11-04T00:17:53","modified_gmt":"2023-11-04T00:17:53","slug":"dont-give-up-on-international-markets-dollar-chart","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/?p=9360","title":{"rendered":"Don\u2019t Give Up On International Markets: Dollar Chart"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<p><figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture>  <\/picture><figcaption> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/7176741-16990552859905748.png\" alt=\"US dollar\" width=\"640\" height=\"427\" contenteditable=\"false\" data-width=\"640\" data-height=\"427\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><figcaption><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p>Good chart from Gary S. Morrow (@garysmorrow) showing the dollar backing away from stiff resistance, which is happening just in time for the seasonal, 4th quarter rally, for the S&amp;P 500.<\/p>\n<p>The DXY (dollar index) and the UUP<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> (Invesco dollar bullish fund) are lower today on the weaker US payroll report.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">As the chart shows, it\u2019s been a strong dollar rally the last three months, that started almost when the S&amp;P 500 peaked in late July \u201923, and it also looks as if the dollar peaked just as the S&amp;P 500 tested support near 4,150-4,175.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">The DXY and the UUP peaked in late September, early October \u201922, and despite this rally in late \u201923 are still lower than a year ago.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Clients have 4 primary non-US positions:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"><em><strong>Oakmark International Fund:<\/strong> <strong>(OAKIX)<\/strong><\/em> Oakmark Int\u2019l was beating the S&amp;P 500<span class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\"> as of July 31 \u201923, ahead by about 200 bps, up over 22% versus the S&amp;P 500\u2019s +20% YTD gain in 7\/31\/23, but since then has given up all that alpha and then some, closing last week with a YTD return of 1.13%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">David Herro\u2019s fund has always been known for its volatility, and the last 90 days haven\u2019t disappointed, but if the seasonal rally is here, Treasury yields cooperate, and the dollar weakens, expect Oakmark International to close the gap on the S&amp;P 500 once again. (That\u2019s not a prediction.) Oakmark Int\u2019l is a top 10 client position and has been for the last several years.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em><strong>Emerging Markets Ex-China ETF:<\/strong><\/em> (EMXC): The EMXC was up about 14% YTD as of July 31, but as of last Friday, its YTD return had shrunk to just over 2%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Emerging markets are lagging the International funds in general, and just haven\u2019t been a good place to be in the last 10-15 years, as the SPDR EM ETF (SPEM) has returned just 3.01% over the last 5 years and 2.17% over the last 10 years. (See the attached spreadsheet with annual returns.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em><strong>Vanguard\u2019s FTSE Developed Markets ETF (VEA):<\/strong><\/em> Even though it\u2019s a \u201cdeveloped market\u201d index, its return this year has correlated pretty closely with the EMXC, probably because the entire globe is feeling\/experiencing higher interest rates.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The 4th largest non-US or international position is an international equity fund which won\u2019t be named since I\u2019m not sure how long it will be held.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em><strong>Annual returns:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/infundpros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/7176741-16990553845047061.png\" alt=\"Annual returns\" width=\"640\" height=\"292\" contenteditable=\"true\" data-width=\"640\" data-height=\"292\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The 3-, 5-, and 10-year international annual returns for the asset class are still \u201cmeh\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em><strong>Summary\/conclusion:<\/strong><\/em> None of this is advice or a recommendation, so take it all with a substantial grain of salt. This gives readers some idea of how clients are positioned internationally in the 4th quarter, as it looks like the dollar is poised to weaken. The positions can change at any time.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As someone who has been managing money since the mid-1990s, the only time where international equity returns really outperformed the S&amp;P 500 was from 2000 to 2007, and it coincided with the peak in large-cap growth in March 2000, and the fact that China was growing 15% a year for most of the late 1990s and through that horrid decade from 2000 through 2009 for the S&amp;P 500.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Past performance is no indication or guarantee of future results.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Thanks for reading. S&amp;P 500 earnings update coming this weekend.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em>Original Post<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Editor&#8217;s Note:<\/strong> The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4647454-dont-give-up-on-international-markets-dollar-chart?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Good chart from Gary S. Morrow (@garysmorrow) showing the dollar backing away from stiff resistance, which is happening just in time for&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9361,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-9360","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Don\u2019t Give Up On International Markets: Dollar Chart | inFundPros<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Good chart from Gary S. 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