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Sanae Takaichi is poised to become Japan’s first-ever female prime minister after the country’s ruling Liberal Democratic party elected her as its new president in a tightly contested leadership race.
Takaichi, 64, a hardline conservative who models herself on former UK prime minister Margaret Thatcher, defeated her closest rival Shinjiro Koizumi in a second-round run-off on Saturday. Takaichi’s victory defied pre-vote polling, much of which had pointed to a win for Koizumi.
Takaichi is a political veteran who has held multiple cabinet positions and was a big supporter of the late Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” policies. She will immediately replace outgoing prime minister Shigeru Ishiba as head of the LDP.
But she inherits a ruling party that faces rising geopolitical threats and strained relations with Japan’s most important ally, the US, over tariffs on its important export industries and defence commitments.
“Rather than feeling happy now,” said Takaichi, who had twice previously sought the party’s leadership, “I feel that the future is truly difficult.”
The LDP, which has ruled Japan for all but a handful of the past 70 years, has a fragile hold on power through its coalition with the smaller Komeito party.
It lost its majority in both houses of parliament under Ishiba, who lasted just one year in the job, meaning Takaichi will be forced to seek the support of one or more opposition parties to be confirmed as prime minister in a vote scheduled for October 15. The party has made similar ad hoc deals with opposition parties to pass legislation and budgets.
If Takaichi secures the premiership — a result by no means assured — she will have less than two weeks to prepare for US President Donald Trump’s visit to Japan.
The LDP’s slow-burning crisis has been brought to a head by the defection of its traditional supporters to small populist parties as inflation, demographics and immigration have risen to the forefront of public concerns. Younger voters have been especially strident in rejecting the LDP.
Takaichi, a nationalist who favours tighter restrictions on immigration and commands strong support among the LDP’s rank and file, told the party that all members must work “like horses”.
“For my part, I will be abandoning the concept of work-life balance,” she said, wearing a royal blue suit that recalled her idol Thatcher. “Work! Work! Work! Work! Work!”
Political analysts said that the 10 days before the premiership vote would involve tense negotiations between the LDP and potential partners, the largest of which are not disposed to Takaichi’s strain of conservatism.
Tobias Harris, the biographer of Abe and founder of political consultancy Japan Foresight, said that while Takaichi polled well among former LDP supporters who had recently shifted to smaller parties, her hardline politics risked alienating coalition partner Komeito.
Ahead of the leadership election, Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito said his party would not remain in coalition with an LDP led by Takaichi.
Harris said that the LDP would try to revive its fortunes by pivoting back to “Abeism”, though he questioned the prospects of its success.
“It is unlikely that Takaichi’s victory will mark the end of the political instability that has prevailed for several years,” he said.
The markets were jittery before Saturday’s election. Takaichi has previously indicated that she favoured a rise in government spending, including on defence.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley predicted that, had another candidate won, the yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds could fall to 3 per cent. A Takaichi victory, they said, could cause the yield to rise to 3.35 per cent.
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