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Good morning! Here is the latest in trending:
Jobs Day: The latest non-farm payrolls report will likely be bolstered by seasonal hiring and the government restart. More details here.
Mega miner: Glencore (GLCNF) and Rio Tinto (RIO) have restarted talks over a possible merger almost a year after earlier talks collapsed.
EV trouble: General Motors (GM) is taking an additional $7.1B writedown tied to the decision to scale back its electric vehicle production and Chinese operations.
It’s not a given, but there’s a good chance the Supreme Court could rule on the legality of President Trump’s tariffs today after setting Friday as a decision day. SCOTUS has expedited the tariff case due to its outsized impact on businesses and the economy. At issue are Trump’s across-the-board “reciprocal” tariffs on trading partners that are aimed at reducing the trade deficit, as well as the more targeted ones designed to counter fentanyl trafficking out of China, Mexico, and Canada.
Statutory interpretation: The tariffs were implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, which is usually used for economic sanctions and freezing assets. IEEPA powers also allow the president to “regulate importation,” but the question here is whether tariffs fall under taxation, a power that the Constitution assigns to Congress, or can be viewed as a regulatory mechanism. Opponents of the tariffs have made a legal case that IEEPA authority only applies to things like quotas, licensing, and safety standards, while proponents have argued that the meaning is broader and includes any financial tool used to regulate trade in dealing with extraordinary threats.
“Will a strike down of tariffs require refunds? Likely but not guaranteed. The court should clarify if the decision applies retroactively to previous payments made or prospectively on a go-forward basis,” Wells Fargo economists wrote in a research note. “It’s also entirely possible that the court kicks the decision on refunds to the lower courts to decide, but even if the court decides Friday that refunds must be made nationwide, it may require individual importers/businesses to file a case to get the refund, lengthening the process. The bottom line is that refunds (if processed in full, somewhere around $130B) will take time to pass through the system.”
Next moves: There is also a possibility that some tariffs may be struck down, while others are upheld, but even if the White House loses the entire case, there are several additional ways the administration can reimpose the tariffs (for now). “What is not in doubt is our ability to continue collecting tariffs at roughly the same level, in terms of overall revenues,” said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has already prepared a backup plan. “What is in doubt, and it’s a real shame for the American people, is the president loses flexibility to use tariffs both for national security [and] negotiating leverage.” (7 comments)
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What else is happening…
Nvidia (NVDA) hires Google exec as its first marketing chief.
Iger in China: Disney (DIS) will continue to expand investment.
Decision on Fannie, Freddie IPOs likely in a month or two.
Toyota (TM) is the top EV seller in Japan for the first time.
Trump directs representatives to buy $200B in mortgage bonds.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) enters federal pact for drug discounts.
Tilray Brands (TLRY) jumps as it posts record quarterly revenue.
Bessent discusses Fed chair search, interest rates and fiscal deficit.
Boeing (BA) CEO: More turnaround progress needed in 2026.
Iran cuts off the internet as Khamenei slams protesters and Trump.
Today’s Markets
In Asia, Japan +1.6%. Hong Kong +0.3%. China +0.9%. India -0.7%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.4%. Paris +0.8%. Frankfurt +0.3%.
Futures at 6:30, Dow flat. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq +0.2%. Crude +0.7% to $58.19. Gold +0.5% to $4,481.30. Bitcoin +0.5% to $90,467.
Ten-year Treasury Yield to unchanged at 4.19%.
On The Calendar
See the full earnings calendar on Seeking Alpha, as well as today’s economic calendar.
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